What
the data tells us:
Are Muslims responsible for India’s ‘population explosion’?
Not quite
August
27, 2019, 2:00 AM IST Ali Mehdi in TOI Edit Page | Edit Page, India | TOI
The
Prime Minister expressed concern about ‘population explosion’ in his Independence
Day speech, and referred to those with small families as patriotic,
‘responsible citizens’. Last month, BJP MP Rakesh Sinha introduced the
Population Regulation Bill, 2019, in the Rajya Sabha. He later claimed that his
Bill was not aimed at any religion, caste or community. Regardless, the Shiv
Sena targeted a section of the Muslims for their supposedly high birth rates
(‘hum do, humare pachhis’ – we 2, our 25). Last year, BJP MP Giriraj Singh went
to the extent of claiming that “one particular community is responsible for
increasing the population of the country and that is curbing the nation’s
development”, even as Shiv Sena called for “compulsory sterilisation” of
Muslims.
None
of this is new. Religious differences in birth rates have often been a matter
of hot political debate in India since the early 1900s. Thankfully, India has
had a long history of very rich and reliable demographic data which can be used
to assess whether such concerns are well-founded.
India’s
population has increased by more than 5 times in the last 110 years, from 238
million in 1901 to 1,211 million in 2011. Most of the increase (87%) happened
in the post-Independence era (1951-2011). The highest population growth was
24.8% during 1961-71, after which the growth rate started declining, going down
to 17.7% during 2001-11. A report by the National Institute for Heath and
Family Welfare, ‘The Story of India’s Population’ (2014), confirms that “India
has witnessed a steady decline in its population growth rate over the last four
decades (1971–2011).”
Illustration:
Uday Deb
However,
with a huge population as ours, even decreasing growth rate means massive
additions to the total population size. So, despite declining growth rates
during 1971-2011, we added 663 million to our population in this period. And
not 2050, India will become the world’s most populous country in 2027 itself,
according to estimates by UN World Population Prospects 2019. So, yes, the
population explosion has happened and continues to happen.
Are
Muslims responsible for India’s population explosion? Muslims contributed 14.6%
(1901-2011), 16.1% (1951-2011) and 16.7% (1971-2011) to India’s population
growth. The contribution of Hindus, on the other hand, was 79.4%, 78% and 77.4%
and that of the rest was 6%, 5.9% and 5.9% during these periods. In 1901,
Hindus outnumbered Muslims in India by 164 million; by 268 million in 1951; 392
million in 1971; and by 794 million in 2011. So, despite a lower growth rate,
but a much higher population, the numerical advantage of Hindus has grown over
the years, rather than the other way round.
At
the same time, the population growth rate of Muslims has been declining since
1971 – from 30.9% during 1961-71 to 24.6% during 2001-11. If population
explosion is what you are concerned about, do not bother about the Muslims so
much.
A
higher total fertility rate (TFR) – births per woman – among Muslims is often
referred to as a cause for alarm (religious, demographic and developmental).
Allow me to clarify. Population change is determined by three demographic
variables – fertility, mortality and migration – and not by fertility alone.
You can have a high fertility rate, but if your mortality or migration rates
are high, your population won’t increase.
These
demographic variables are, in turn, determined by socioeconomic factors (type
of residence, education, economic status, etc) as well as by culture, religion,
sense of security, etc – and not by religion alone. The TFR of Muslims in Uttar
Pradesh is 3.10, while it is 1.86 in Kerala – much less than that of Hindus in
UP (2.67), according to the fourth round (2015-16) of the National Family
Health Survey (NFHS-4).
TFR
in rural India was 2.41 and 1.75 in urban India, while their under-five
mortality rate (U5MR) was 55.8 and 34.4 respectively. Similarly, at the
national level, among women aged 15-49 years with no schooling and those with
12 or more years schooling, TFR was 3.06 and 1.71 respectively, while U5MR was
67.5 and 26.5. Among those in the lowest and the highest wealth index, TFR was
3.17 and 1.54 respectively, while U5MR was 71.7 and 22.6. TFR of Muslims and
Hindus was 2.61 and 2.13 respectively, while their U5MR was 49.9 and 50.5, at
the all-India level. Muslims have had an advantage over Hindus in child
survival for a very long time, and it has only declined over time. One aspect
of mortality is life expectancy at birth (LEB). There was a difference of 4
years between LEB of poor Muslims (65.5 years) and Hindus (61.5 years) during
NFHS-3 (2005-06), the difference being miniscule between non-poor Muslims (68.4
years) and Hindus (67.8 years).
So,
it is not just due to higher TFR, but also higher child and adult survival
rates that the population growth rate among Muslims has been relatively higher.
Furthermore,
TFR declined by 40.8% among Muslims vis-a-vis 35.7% at the national level and
35.5% among Hindus between NFHS-1 (1992-93) and NFHS-4. It will decline further
if their socioeconomic characteristics, sense of security, etc improve. Only
9.2% of Muslim females aged 6+ years vis-a-vis 14% Hindu females had 12 or more
years of schooling; for males, it was 12.7% and 21% respectively (NFHS-4). In
2011-12, 25.4% Muslims and 21.9% Hindus were below the poverty line (Tendulkar
methodology). Despite differentials in socioeconomic deprivation, the situation
of both Hindus and Muslims is worrisome, and this is what needs to be addressed
to stop the population exploding further.
Population
growth is an issue that has concerned people for quite some time. In this
lesson, explore two major theories about human population growth and test your
understanding with a brief quiz.
Population
Growth
According
to the United Nations, the world population is somewhere just over seven
billion people, as of 2015. That's a lot of people! I mean, have you ever been
to New York City and seen how crowded it is? That's about nine million people.
So, multiply that by about 780, and you've got the world population. Seriously,
that's a lot of people. And that number just keeps growing. The UN also
predicts that we'll reach nine billion people by 2050, and almost 11 billion by
2100. So many people! So, naturally there are questions that arise: like how do
we feed this many people, where will they live, can social media handle that many
accounts? Important things like that. Well, it may surprise you to learn that
we're not the first people to ask these questions. I mean, yeah, 19th century
sociologists weren't concerned with social media, but they were worried about
population growth. And, they had their own ways of explaining it.
Malthusian
Population Growth
For
a long, long time, human population grew at a pretty steady rate. Obviously,
this rate was fast enough for us to spread out of Africa and around the world,
but it was steady. Then, in the 18th century, population suddenly exploded,
thanks to the invention of machines and rapid technological growth known as the
Industrial Revolution.
This
sudden population boom caused people to start worrying, and they began
developing theories to explain these changes and predict for the future. One
major theory came from Thomas Robert Malthus, published in his 1798 'Essay on
the Principle of Population.' Malthus stated that population growth had to be
understood through two aspects: the need for food and the passion between the
sexes. That's it. Human population grows so quickly because men and women are
so sexually attracted to each other, causing them to overpopulate and run out
of food. According to Malthus, this means that population can potentially
double every 25 years.
Now,
this means that human population multiplies, meaning it has a geometric
progression. So, 2 becomes 4, 4 becomes 8, 8 becomes 16, etc. The problem is
that food supplies only increase as an arithmetic progression, steadily
increasing through addition. 1, 2, 3, 4; that's an arithmetic progression. So,
it was pretty obvious to Malthus that human population would completely outpace
food supplies over time.
Private
member’s Bill calls for two-child norm
The
Population Regulation Bill, 2019, introduced by Rakesh Sinha in the Upper
House, suggests that people with more than two living children should be
“disqualified” from being chosen as an MP, MLA or a member of any body of the
local self government after the commencement of the Act.
By
Express News Service |
New
Delhi |
Published:
July 13, 2019 1:37:32 am
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Rakesh
Sinha (second from right) with RJD member Manoj Jha. (Anil Sharma)
A
nominated MP aligned with the ruling BJP on Friday introduced a private
member’s Bill in the Rajya Sabha, seeking to enforce a two-child norm by giving
incentives for those adopting the small family practice and penalties for those
contravening it.
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The
Population Regulation Bill, 2019, introduced by Rakesh Sinha in the Upper
House, suggests that people with more than two living children should be
“disqualified” from being chosen as an MP, MLA or a member of any body of the
local self government after the commencement of the Act. Similarly, it suggests
that government employees should give an undertaking that she or he will not
procreate more than two children. It says those government employees who have
more than two children on or before the commencement of the Act should be
exempted.
Other
penalties include reduction in subsidies on loans and interest rates on savings
instruments, reduction in benefits under the public distribution system, and
higher than normal interest rates for availing loans from banks and financial
institutions.
Talking
to The Indian Express, Sinha said his private member’s Bill was not aimed at
any religion, caste or community. He said according to UN population
projections, India is expected to become the most populated country by 2050.
“(The Bill) is intended to create a balance between people and the resources,
human resources as well as natural resources,” he said.
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Sinha
said that 72 districts in the country have a total fertility rate of more than
four children per woman, and among them, “there are many districts which are
dominated by minorities”. He added, “There is also a case of regional
imbalance….while the southern and western states are better off, in the
northern and eastern states of India, birth control is either not accepted or
not applied. So it is a multi-dimensional problem. Regional, resources,
religion – all three factors are there.”
The
provisions of the Bill also list out several benefits for Central and public
sector enterprise employees who adopt the two-child norm “by undergoing
sterilization operation himself or of the spouse”.
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