Muslim population growth slows
Rukmini S. Vijaita Singh NEW DELHI, AUGUST 25, 2015 18:55 IST
UPDATED: FEBRUARY 13, 2017 15:41 IST
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/Muslim-population-growth-slows/article10336665.ece
Muslims_India_TH1
Gap with Hindu growth rate narrows.
India’s Muslim population is growing slower than it had in the previous decades, and its growth rate has slowed more sharply than that of the Hindu population, new Census data show.
The decadal Muslim rate of growth is the lowest it has ever been in India’s history, as it is for all religions.
The Muslim population still grows at a faster rate than the Hindu population, but the gap between the two growth rates is narrowing fast.
India in numbers
India now has 966.3 million Hindus, who make up 79.8 per cent of its population, and 172.2 million Muslims, who make up 14.23 per cent. Among the other minorities, Christians make up 2.3 per cent of the population and Sikhs 1.72 per cent.
The Registrar-General and Census Commissioner released the data on Population by Religious Communities of Census 2011 on Tuesday evening.
The distribution of data is of the total population by six major religious communities — Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Sikh, Buddhist and Jain — besides “Other religions and persuasions” and “Religion not stated”.
The data are released by sex and residence up to the levels of sub-districts and towns.
As has been the case since Independence, the rate of increase of the Muslim population is higher than that of the Hindu population as a result of higher Muslim fertility, higher child mortality among Hindus and a greater life expectancy among Muslims, demographers say. However, Muslim fertility rates in India are falling faster than among Hindus, Pew Research’s Future of World Religions report showed recently, and the Muslim community is expected to reach replacement levels of fertility by 2050.
Muslim sex ratio improves further
The data on Population by Religious Communities of Census 2011 show that between 2001 and 2011, Hindu population grew by 16.76 per cent, while that of Muslims by 24.6 per cent. The population of both communities grew faster during the previous decade, at 19.92 per cent and 29.52 per cent, respectively. As a long-term trend, say demographers, the communities’ growth rates are converging.
“This is completely along expected lines, and has been an ongoing process,” P. Arokiasamy, demographer and Professor at the International Institute of Population Sciences, Mumbai, told The Hindu. “With rising education and changing family expectations, declining fertility is an expected demographic phenomenon. It begins among better educated groups with better access to health care — as in India’s southern States — and then other groups catch up and converge,” Dr. Arokiasamy explained. In Kerala, for instance, the Muslim fertility rate (while higher than among the Hindus) is extremely low, especially compared with all communities in the northern States, he said.
The numbers show that the sex ratio among Muslims, already better than among Hindus, has further improved.
The sex ratio among Muslims now stands at 951 females for every 1,000 males, substantially better than 936 in 2001, while among Hindus, it is 939 females for every 1,000 males, a slight improvement over the 2001 value of 931. J&K remains the State with the largest Muslim population as a proportion (68.31 per cent) and saw the largest increase in the Muslim proportion between 2001 and 2011, followed by Uttarakhand and Kerala.
Religion Numbers (Per cent of the population)
Hindu 96.63 crore (79.8 %)
Muslim 17.22 crore (14.2%)
Christian 2.78 crore (2.3%)
Sikh 2.08 crore (1.7%)
Buddhist 0.84 crore (0.7%)
Jain 0.45 crore (0.4%)
Other Religions & Persuasions (ORP) 0.79 crore (0.7%)
Religion Not Stated 0.29 crore (0.2%)
Growth rate
The growth rate of population in the decade 2001-2011 was 17.7%. The growth rate of population of the different religious communities in the same period was:
Religion Growth
Hindu 16.8%
Muslim 24.6%
Christian 15.5%
Sikh 8.4%
Buddhist 6.1%
Jain 5.4%
The Census data on religion comes after a significant delay; the 2001 Census data on religion was released in 2004 and the 2011 round results were expected in 2014. However, the numbers remained unreleased, even as a draft of the key data was selectively leaked earlier. The data comes in the backdrop of much fear-mongering over Muslims and their population, and RSS thinkers were quick to term the new data as proof of the end of Hindus, even while the numbers belie their claim.
The article and the graphic have been corrected for factual errors.
RSS Claims About Rapid Growth of the Muslim Population are Simply False
BY SALMAN ANEES SOZ ON 07/09/2016 • 2 COMMENTS
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RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat speaking at Agra College last month. Credit: PTI
RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat speaking at Agra College last month. Credit: PTI
Recently, Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) made controversial remarks in response to questions about population growth of Indian Muslims. He was addressing a gathering of young couples at Agra College. Hindutva groups such as the RSS have long stoked fears of Muslims becoming the largest religious group in India.
In fact, Prime Minister Modi too had infamously fanned such a narrative when he was Chief Minister in Gujarat. Of course, there is no evidence to support the outlandish claims of Hindutva groups. But, in the immortal words of Mark Twain, “a lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.” It is my intention to help truth chase lies down. I am particularly interested in the kinds of lies that are divisive and put ordinary lives in danger.
Let’s first see what the controversy was about. At this event, Mohan Bhagwat was taking questions; two questions/comments in particular have been quoted by various media outlets.
“In Bharat, the rate of growth of Hindus is 2.1 percent and that of Muslims is 5.2 percent. If the growth rate of Hindu population continues to lag behind the Muslim growth rate (two-and-half times), then after 50 years, how will we live here as a Hindu nation (Hindu Rashtra)? Won’t this nation become an Islamic country?”
In the second instance, audience members gave examples of France where the French fertility rate was 1.8, while that of Muslims was 8.1. “This would lead to a situation when only one in five residing in France would be original resident by the year 2027,” a volunteer said.
In response, he is quoted to have said: “Which law says that the population of Hindus should not rise? What is stopping them when population of others is rising? The issue is not related to the system. It is because the social environment is like this.”
After an uproar ensued, RSS clarified Bhagwat’s comments in the following way:
What Mohan Bhagwat didn’t say: Hindus should produce more children.
What he actually said: Which law stops you from producing more children?
What he intended to say: There should be a common law about population growth applicable to all.
I think we all know what Mohan Bhagwat meant. Muslims are producing too many kids, they will overwhelm India’s Hindu majority character. Hindus should have more babies. If that is too much to ask, let’s bring in restrictions on how many kids people (read Muslims) can have. Of course, he is too smart to believe Muslims will outnumber Hindus. There is zero evidence to support that. But, fear mongering has its political advantages. So, why not say whatever it takes to promote Hindutva? It is for this reason that we must rebut the majoritarian propaganda of the RSS.
So, what are the facts? According to official census 2011 data, Hindus now constitute 79.8% of India’s population. In 2001, Hindus were 80.45% of the population. On the other hand, Muslims are now 14.2% of the population. In 2001, Muslims population was 13.4% of the total. Between 2001 and 2011, Hindu population grew at an annual rate of 1.55% while Muslims grew at 2.2%. Clearly, Muslims have grown faster than Hindus have. But, that is not the entire story. In fact, Muslim growth rate is slowing down at a rate faster than it is for Hindus. Between 1991 and 2001, the annual growth rate for Hindus was 1.8% and for Muslims it was 2.6%. This relative slowdown in Muslim growth rate is part of a natural demographic transition due to different factors including female education.
Another indicator of population trends is the total fertility rate (TFR), which is the number of births per woman. According to the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-3 from 2005-06), TFR for Muslim women is 3.1 while it was 2.7 for Hindu women. While Muslim TFR is higher, the gap with Hindu women has narrowed significantly. In the NFHS-1 (1992-93), TFR for Muslim and Hindu women was 4.4 and 3.3 respectively. Furthermore, RSS is aware that the fertility rate of Muslims is similar to fertility rates of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. Socioeconomic factors play an important part in evolution of fertility rates. If RSS really wants speed up the decline in Muslim fertility rates, perhaps the right approach would be to help improve the socioeconomic status of Muslims. Now, that would be quite an innovation for RSS. In any event, based on census data on population growth rates and their expected path, as well as the TFR data from NFHS, I am confident Hindus will likely remain at about 80% of India’s population throughout the 21st century.
But, aren’t Muslims growing so rapidly in countries like France that they will soon overwhelm the “original” residents? By extension, if Muslims can do it in Europe, they can do it India, seems to be the argument. The simple answer is ‘No’. The Pew Research Center estimates that while Muslim fertility rates are higher than for non-Muslims in France, the differences are far smaller than the RSS would have us believe. The Muslim fertility rate in France is 2.8 (not 8.1) for Muslims versus 1.9 for others. By 2030, Muslim fertility is likely to drop to 2.4 while for non-Muslims, it will remain at 1.9. The gap between Muslims and non-Muslims is narrowing. In fact, this narrowing gap in fertility rates between Muslims and non-Muslims is happening across Europe in countries such Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. The Pew Center suggests that fertility rates among Muslims (and others) will approach replacement level (2.1) by 2050. This appears to be a natural equilibrium.
Many others have fact-checked RSS talking points on Muslim population growth. Others have pointed out, as I do here, that RSS is spreading falsehoods for political reasons. RSS is so cynical that it continues to push this narrative of the demise of the Hindu majority even as it knows well that nothing close to it is happening. Under such circumstances, we have no choice but to repeatedly call out the lies spread by RSS. But even the RSS must know, truth alone triumphs!
The writer, formerly with the World Bank, is a National Media Panelist of the Indian National Congress. Views expressed are personal.
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Muslim population growth
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
World Muslim population by percentage (Pew Research Center, 2014)
Muslim population growth refers to the topic of population growth of the global Muslim community. In 2006, countries with a Muslim majority had an average population growth rate of 1.8% per year (when weighted by percentage Muslim and population size).[1] This compares with a world population growth rate of 1.1% per year.[2] As of 2011, it is predicted that the world's Muslim population will grow twice as fast as non-Muslims over the next 20 years.[citation needed] By 2030, Muslims will make up more than a quarter of the global population.[citation needed]
Globally, Muslims have the highest fertility rate, an average of 3.1 children per woman—well above replacement level (2.1) due to young age of Muslims (median age of 23) compared to other religious groups.[3] Christians are second, at 2.7 children per woman.[4] Hindu fertility (2.4) is similar to the global average (2.5).[5] Worldwide, Jewish fertility (2.3 children per woman) also is above replacement level.[6] All the other groups have fertility levels too low to sustain their populations and would require converts to grow or maintain their size: indigenous and tribal religions (1.8 children per woman), other religions (1.7), the unaffiliated (1.7) and Buddhists (1.6).[7]
Islam is the fastest growing religion all over the world,[8] due primarily to the young age and high fertility rate of Muslims.[9][10] Religious switching has no impact on Muslim population relative to other religious group, since the number of people who embrace Islam and those who leave Islam are roughly equal.[11][12][12][13][14] It is often reported from most recent various sources in 2010, including the German domestic intelligence service, that Salafism is the fastest-growing Islamic movement in the world.[15][16][17][18] Though according to the World Christian Encyclopedia, published in 2001, the fastest-growing branch of Islam is Ahmadiyya.[19]
A 2007 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report argued that some Muslim population projections are overestimated, as they assume that all descendants of Muslims will become Muslims even in cases of mixed parenthood.[20]
Contents [hide]
1 Politics
2 By region
2.1 World
2.2 Asia
2.2.1 China
2.3 Europe
3 By denomination
4 Conversion
5 See also
6 References
Politics[edit]
Estimating Muslim population growth is related to contentious political issues. Some Islamic organizations have accused American demographers of releasing falsely low population numbers of Muslims in the United States to justify the marginalization of Muslims.[21]
By region[edit]
World[edit]
According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the World Christian Database as of 2007 estimated the six fastest-growing religions of the world to be Islam (1.8%), the Bahá'í Faith (1.7%), Sikhism (1.6%), Jainism (1.6%), Hinduism (1.5%), and Christianity (1.3%). High birth rates were cited as the reason for the growth.[22] However, according to others, including the Guinness World Records, Islam is the world's fastest-growing religion by number of conversions each year.[23]
Monsignor Vittorio Formenti, who compiles the Vatican's yearbook, said in an interview with the Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano that "For the first time in history, we are no longer at the top: Muslims have overtaken us". He said that Catholics accounted for 17.4% of the world population—a stable percentage—while Muslims were at 19.2%.[24] "It is true that while Muslim families, as is well known, continue to make a lot of children, Christian ones on the contrary tend to have fewer and fewer," the monsignor said.[25]
On April 2, 2015, the Pew Research Center published a Demographic Study about "The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050" with projections of the growth of Islam and reasons why "Islam will grow faster than any other major religion."[26] The study concludes that the global Muslim population is expected to grow at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population due primarily to the young age and high fertility rate of Muslims.[27][28]
Projected growth of Islam by 2050
Some of the projections are as follows:[29]
"If current trends continue, by 2050 the number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world."
"In Europe, Muslims will make up 10% of the overall population."
In India, a Hindu majority will be retained.
"In the United States, "Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion," so "Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion."
Reasons given for the projected growth
Some of the reasons the Study gives are as follows:[26]
The change in the world's religious is "driven primarily by differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world's major religions, as well as by people switching faiths."
Fertility rates. The world's total population "is expected to rise to 9.3 billion, a 35% increase" between 2010 and 2050, However, "over that same period, Muslims, who have a comparatively youthful population with high fertility rates, are projected to increase by 73%." Muslim growth benefits from the fertility factor because "globally, Muslims have the highest fertility rate, an average of 3.1 children per woman." This is above a replacement level of 2.1 which is "the minimum typically needed to maintain a stable population."
Size of youth population. "In 2010, more than a quarter of the world's total population (27%) was under the age of 15. But a "higher percentage of Muslims (34%) were younger than 15."
Size of old population. In 2010, "11% of the world's population was at least 60 years old," but only 7% of Muslims were over 60.
Switching. Between 2010 and 2050 a gain of 3,220,000 Muslim adherents is projected to come through switching, mostly found in the Sub Saharan Africa (2.9 million). Also, the Muslim population are projected to add 1.3 million and lose 880,000 via switching, for a net gain of 420,000 between 2015 and 2020.
Migration. Migration is the third reason for the Muslim population growth. For example, 1.8% of the projected growth in Europe is attributed to Muslims migrating in.
Asia[edit]
Islam is currently the largest religion in Asia. According to the Pew Research Center, nearly three-in-ten people living in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 (27.3%) will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in 2010 (24.8%) and roughly a fifth in 1990 (21.6%).[30]
, regarding attitudes "toward birth control," younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women are less likely to favor it than are older (ages 20–30). Regarding "knowledge of birth control," younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women know less than do older (ages 20–30). "Muslim marriages take place earlier" than other religions, and younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women are more likely to want to have "many children" than are older (ages 20–30).[31]
According to Paul Kurtz, Muslims in India are much more resistant to modern contraceptive measures compared to other Indians and, as a consequence, the fertility rate among non-Muslim women is much lower compared to that of Muslim women.[32][33] According to the projection of a 2006 committee appointed by the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, if the current trend continued, by the end of the 21st century India's Muslim population would reach about 340 million people (19% or 20% of India's total projected population), despite the fact that Hindus would still remain the predominant religious community of the country.[34] Islam is the second-largest religion in India, making up 14.9% of the country's population with about 180 million adherents (2011 census).[35][36] According to the Pew Research Center, in 2011, India had the second largest population of Muslims, after Indonesia.[37]
China[edit]
In China, Muslim population growth was 2.7% during 1964–1982, compared to 2.1% for the population as the next two decades from 2011.[citation needed] Pew Research Center projects a slowing down of Muslim population growth in China than in previous years, with Muslim women in China having a 1.7 fertility rate.[38] Many Hui Muslims voluntarily limit themselves to one child in China since their Imams preach to them about the benefits of population control. The number of children, in different areas, people are allowed to have varies between one and three children.[39] Chinese family planning policy allows minorities, including Muslims, to have up to two children in urban areas, and three to four children in rural areas.[citation needed]
Europe[edit]
See also: Islam in Europe
Islam is the fastest-growing religion in Europe.[40][41] According to the Pew Research Center, the Muslim population in Europe (excluding Turkey) was about 30 million in 1990, 44 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 58 million by 2030; the Muslim share of the population increased from 4.1% in 1990 to 6% in 2010 and will continue to increase over the next 40 years, reaching 10% in 2050.[7][30] There were approximately 19 million Muslims in the European Union in 2010 or about (3.8%).[42]
Data for the rates of growth of Islam in Europe reveal that the growing number of Muslims is due primarily to immigration and higher birth rates.[43] Eric Kaufmann of University of London argues that the main reason why Islam is expanding, is not because of conversion to Islam, but primarily to the nature of the religion as he call it “pro-natal”, where Muslims tend to have more children.[44] Muslim women today have an average of 2.2 children compared to an estimated average of 1.5 children for non-Muslim women in Europe.[7] While the birth rate for Muslims in Europe is expected to decline over the next two decades, it will remain slightly higher than in the non-Muslim population,[7] except for Dutch-Turks, who have a lower birthrate (1.7) than the native Dutch population (1.8).[45][46]
Based on the current growth rate of Islam in Europe, in 2030, Muslims are projected to make up more than 10% of the total population in 10 European countries: Kosovo (93.5%), Albania (83.2%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (42.7%), Republic of Macedonia (40.3%), Montenegro (21.5%), Bulgaria (15.7%), Russia (14.4%), Georgia (11.5%), France (10.3%) and Belgium (10.2%).[30] There are around 100,000 Muslim converts in the UK.[47][48] France has seen conversions to the Islamic faith double in the past quarter century. In France there are an estimated 100,000 Muslim converts, compared with about 50,000 in 1986.[49]
By denomination[edit]
The following table lists historical growth rates (rounded) by schools and branches in Islam as published by the previous two editions of the World Christian Encyclopedia.
Branches/Schools Growth rate (%) in 1982 Growth rate (%) in 2001
Sunni - -
Hanafi 2.8 2.1
Shafi 2.9 2.2
Maliki 2.4 2.0
Hanbali 2.7 2.2
Shia - -
Twelver 2.8 2.2
Isma'ili 3.4 2.7
Zaydi 2.8 2.3
Alawites 2.8 -
Ahmadi 4.2 3.3
Khariji 2.7 2.1
Wahhabi - 1.4
Conversion[edit]
In a 2015 article, the Pew Research Center said that the "bulging youth populations are among the reasons that Muslims are projected to grow faster than the world's overall population"[50] Only 0.3% (3,220,000 people) of the expected Muslim population growth (1,161,780,000) in the period of 2010–2050 would be due to conversions; 99.7% would be due to a high birth rate among Muslims.[7][51][52] According to 2016 study by Pew Research Center found that only 0.3% (500,000 people) of the Muslim population growth in the period of 2010–2015 was be due to conversions, While (152,000,000) of the Muslim population growth was due natural increas (births minus deaths).[53] According to The New York Times, an estimated 25% of American Muslims are converts.[54] In Britain, around 6,000 people convert to Islam per year and according to a June 2000 article in the British Muslims Monthly Survey the bulk of new Muslim converts in Britain were women.[55] According to The Huffington Post, "observers estimate that as many as 20,000 Americans convert to Islam annually."[56]
Darren E. Sherkat questioned in Foreign Affairs whether some of the Muslim growth projections are accurate as they do not take into account the increasing number of non-religious Muslims. Quantitative research is lacking, but he believes the European trend mirrors the American: data from the General Social Survey in the United States show that 32 percent of those raised Muslim no longer embrace Islam in adulthood, and 18 percent hold no religious identification.[57]
Studies estimate significantly more people have converted from Islam to Christianity in the 21st century than at any other point in Islamic history.[58] A 2015 study found that up to 10.2 million Muslim converted to Christianity.[59] The increasingly large ex-Muslim communities in the Western world that adhere to no religion have also been well documented.[60]
Minority report: Muslim families shrinking fastest among Indian communities
Indian families are getting smaller and the decline is sharpest amongst Muslims, religious census data released on Friday said, in what could be signs of rising education and literacy levels in the community.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/minority-report-muslim-families-shrinking-fastest-among-indian-communities/story-hkO5699sGJUFEcYGBEmmrM.html
INDIA Updated: May 21, 2016 00:16 IST
HT Correspondent
HT Correspondent
Hindustan Times
In the Muslim community the average family size fell from 5.61 to 5.15, the report released by the home ministry said.
In the Muslim community the average family size fell from 5.61 to 5.15, the report released by the home ministry said. (Abhishek Saha/HT Photo)
Indian families are getting smaller and the decline is sharpest among Muslims, religious census data released on Friday said, in what could be signs of rising literacy levels in the community.
The report of the census carried out in 2011 was released almost a year after the government revealed religion-wise population figures from the same year.
The latest data said the country’s average family size in 2011 was 4.45 members, down from 4.67 a decade earlier, a drop of 5.3%.
In the Muslim community the average family size fell from 5.61 to 5.15, the report released by the home ministry said. The reduction was sharper -- 11.1% -- for Muslim households headed by men while for families headed by women it was 4.47%.
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The Muslim community is often targeted by Hindu right-wing groups of having large families and a higher population growth rate. Last year, BJP parliamentarian Sakshi Maharaj and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) Sadhvi Prachi had separately asked Hindu women to bear at least four children to counter the growth in Muslim population.
Religious population data released last year showed that the community grew by 24.6 percent between 2001 and 2011. At 17.22 crore, the community formed 14.2% of India’s 121 crore population. With a population of 96.63 crore, Hindus constitute 79.8% of the population.
Data released on Friday also showed the average size of Hindu families declined by 5.02% over the decade, Christian households by 6.47%, Sikh by 7.44%, Buddhist by 5.96% and Jain by 5.5%.
The average household size was higher in male headed households as compared to those headed by females across all religious communities.
Overall, “Christians had the highest percentage of households headed by females (17.4%) followed next by Buddhist (15.9%). The lowest percentage of female headed households is in Jain community (11.5%),” the report said.
The data showed that the difference in household size between different religious communities wasn’t as big as was often made out. Besides, the continuing decline has also narrowed the gap in family size between different religious communities.
In 2011, the average size of a Hindu family was 4.35. In contrast, a Muslim household had 5.15 members, a Christian household 4.05, Sikh household 4.85, Buddhist household 4.1 and a Jain household 4.45 members.
In 2011, an average Muslim family just had 0.8 more persons than a Hindu household as compared to 1.03 persons in 2001.
Myth of Muslim growth
Once again, the debate on census population data on religion misses the point.
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/myth-of-muslim-growth/
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Written by Abusaleh Shariff | Updated: September 2, 2015 12:44 am
Census 2011, Census 2011 muslims population, Muslim population, population growth, Muslim population growth, Census 2011 data, Census 2011 religious population, religious population census, census population data, indian express column, in column, Abusaleh Shariff column Muslims have shown a 50 per cent higher decline in growth rate than Hindus. This positive higher decline of Muslims has been occurring since 1981 and is expected to continue in a manner such that, soon, the Muslim growth rate will be similar to that of the Hindus.
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With the release of the Census 2011 data on religion and misleading reports in the media, the growth of the Muslim population has become the focus of the debate once again. Almost 10 years ago, in 2004, a similar but sharper controversy had erupted when the government released the Census 2001 data on religion.
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There were strong but misguided media debates on the differentials in population growth by religion in reference to Census 2001. The debate was so intense, and often so malicious, that the Union government established a committee to find out the “social, economic and educational status of the Muslims”; it published a report, popularly known as the Sachar report, which has dispelled misunderstandings about Muslim population growth, as well as the status of social, economic and educational conditions according to major socio-religious categories. Now, over a decade later, it is appropriate to ask what has changed that pertains to the Muslims of India.
Many often wonder whether the release of census data coincides with some political activity, like elections. The answer seems to be in the affirmative. Further, the data is released in a context where, for over a year, the sadhvis and sadhus occupying a “place of pride” within Parliament have been yelling urgency in containing the growth of Muslims. It is time to find out if such rhetoric — “paanch beevian aur un sabke 25 bachche” — has finally yielded results.
India is projected to have 311 million Muslims in 2050 (11 per cent of the global total), making it the country with the largest Muslim population in the world.
In the nearly 70 years since Independence, religious violence has claimed thousands of lives, including those of modern India’s founder, Mahatma Gandhi, and former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. A recent Pew Research Centre report on religious restrictions found India to have one of the highest levels of social hostilities involving religion in the world.
With this background, let us get into the specific highlights of the Census 2011 population by religion data.
First, the total population growth rate declined from 21.5 per cent to 17.7 per cent, which is a continuation of the decline of the population of all religions since 1981. The decline has been somewhat faster than what many experts expected, which is reassuring since population stabilisation will occur earlier than projected estimates.
Second, the Muslim population has increased from 13.4 per cent of the population to 14.2 per cent, which is 0.8 percentage points higher. But the rate of growth is considerably lower than in previous decades. Muslims are expected to grow faster than Hindus for a couple of more decades because they have the youngest median age and relatively high fertility among the major religious groups in India. In 2010, the median age of Indian Muslims was 22, compared with 26 for Hindus and 28 for Christians. Muslim women bear an average 3.1 children per head, compared with 2.7 for Hindus and 2.3 for Christians.
Third, in 2011, Hindus constituted 79.8 per cent of the population, compared to 80.5 per cent in 2001. This is the result of a rate of decline over the decade of 3.5 percentage points. It is the difference between the decadal growth rate of Hindus in 2001, which was 20.3 per cent and their growth rate between 2001 and 2011, which is 16.8 per cent. Compare these with the ratios for Muslims, who had a decadal growth rate of 29.5 per cent in 2001. This growth rate, between 2001 and 2011, has declined steeply to 24.6 per cent. This decline works out to be a high 4.9 percentage points.
Fourth, when these percentage point declines are compared between Hindus and Muslims, Muslims have shown a 50 per cent higher decline in growth rate than Hindus. This positive higher decline of Muslims compared with Hindus has been occurring since 1981, and is expected to continue in a manner such that the Muslim growth rate will soon be similar to that of the Hindus. The fast pace of decline in Muslim women’s fertility rate is occurring while they have a much lower mean child-bearing age, which in itself is evidence that falling Muslim fertility is choice-based and irreversible in the near future.
Fifth, overall, there is considerable improvement in the sex ratio in 2011 — 943. This improvement has been phenomenal among Hindus. This is a very positive story of Census 2011. Yet, Muslims have better sex ratios compared to Hindus, which is also a contributing factor in the relatively higher number of births.
Sixth, it has been pointed out since the mid-1980s that the prevalence rate of contraceptives among Muslims has been increasing faster than among Hindus and is likely to catch up with the national average earlier than expected. The rate of increase in contraception among the Muslim community, even in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, has been high.
In conclusion, it would be most appropriate to ask why the census of India has not yet published data according to religion for essential social and economic indicators — such as literacy rates and levels of literacy, work participation rates according to occupation, and the distribution of public employment in national and state governments. Such data highlight the participation of various religious communities in public spaces and also provide a better yardstick to measure equal opportunities in India.
The sadhvis and sadhus in Parliament would be better-off shouting slogans that favour the establishment of national- and state-level equal opportunity commissions in India. Also, it is time the Union government established a committee to review the improvement in the social, economic and educational situation of the 175-million strong Indian Muslim community since the Sachar Committee turned in its report.
The writer, executive director of the US-India Policy Institute in Washington DC, was also member-secretary of the Sachar Committee
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India to have largest Muslim population by 2050, says Pew report
The Muslim population in India will rise faster than any other religious group, increasing from 14.4 per cent to 18.4 per cent.
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-to-have-largest-muslim-population-by-2050-report-4552015/
By: Express Web Desk | New Delhi | Updated: March 3, 2017 6:15 pm
muslim population, muslims in India, Muslim population India, India population, India population increase, Hindus in India, Hindu population India, India news The median age for Muslims is 22. (Representational image)
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India has been projected to have the largest Muslim population by 2050, according to a report by the Pew research centre. The report says there will be 311 million Muslims in India by 2050, a population which will constitute 11 per cent of the global trend. The research also says that India will continue to house the largest number of Hindus in the world, with their population rising to 1.3 billion. Currently, Indonesia has the largest Muslim population.
Pew Report Suggests India To Have Largest Muslim Population By 2050
The research cites young median age and high fertility rates as the reasons behind the increasing population. For Muslims, this age is 22 as compared to Hindus for whom the age is 26. The median age for Christians is 28. Muslim women in India have an average of 3.2 children per woman against Hindu women who have 2.5 children per woman, while Christian women have 2.3 children per woman.
The Muslim population will rise faster increasing from 14.4 per cent in 2010 to 18.4 per cent of the total population in 2050. However, three in four people in India will still be Hindus. The population of Hindus in India will be larger than the Muslim populations in largest Muslim states India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangladesh combined.
Christian population in India, which is at 2.5 per cent of the total population right now, will reduce to 2.3 per cent of the total population in 2050, the report adds.
In a larger report, Pew research centre has said Muslims are the fastest growing religious groups in the world. The research centre has projected the Muslim population will increase faster than the world population as whole.
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Five charts that puncture the bogey of Muslim population growth
From Muslims overtaking Hindus to Bangladeshi immigration, much of the right wing’s rhetoric on demographics is belied by data.
https://scroll.in/article/705283/five-charts-that-puncture-the-bogey-of-muslim-population-growth
Five charts that puncture the bogey of Muslim population growth
IANS
Apr 08, 2015 · 08:55 am
Shoaib Daniyal
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A report released last week by the Pew Research Center predicting that India will overtake Indonesia as the country with the largest Muslim population has set off the usual suspects. In response, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad on Saturday asked Hindus to have more children to rectify this "demographic imbalance" and predicted that soon Muslims will overtake the number of Hindus in India.
This is nothing new, of course. Malthusian fears of a Muslim takeover of India have been a core part of the Hindutva agenda for almost a century now. After the 2002 Gujarat pogrom, for example, Narendra Modi characterised the violence-affected Muslims in riot camps as “baby-producing factories”. After he formed the government at the Centre, these fears have come to the fore in the form of pronouncements by various Bharatiya Janata Party leaders who want Hindu women to have greater numbers of children in order to boost the community’s numbers. In January, just before the Delhi assembly elections, the 2011 Census’ figures on religion were conveniently leaked to newspapers.
Unfortunately, these feverish demographic projections generate far more heat than light. As the charts below show, actual data on this issue would hardly support the sort of fears that the Sangh Parivar plays up.
Bogey #1: Muslims will overtake Hindus
This is an extremely popular notion in the Sangh Parivar. Before the Vishwa Hindu Parishad's statement on Saturday, this was last bought up in February by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Sadhvi Prachi, who accused Muslims of giving birth to “40 dogs” each and “trying to convert Hindustan into Darul Islam”. Drumming up of fears of a minority swamping a majority is standard right wing political strategy and it is no different in India.
Indeed, Muslim population growth rates are higher than the corresponding figure for the Hindu community. If one were to accepted that the leaked figures from the 2011 Census are accurate, Hindus grew at an average annual rate of 1.4% between 2001 and 2011. For Muslims, the corresponding figure was 2.2%.
If we assume both communities continue to grow at this rate, Muslims will catch up with Hindus by 2220 ‒ in around 200 years.
Data: Census of India, 2001 and 2011.
Accepting these growth rates, at the time Muslims outnumber Hindus, India’s population will be 3,264 crore. Now you know that is a lot of people but let’s see just how much.
Data: Census of India, 2001 and 2011.
At these rates, for Muslims to overtake Hindus, India’s population would need to be almost five times the current global population. In other words, this is clearly an impossible scenario.
More logically, at some point in the future, Muslim growth rates will slow down and the population will stabilise. This, in fact, is already happening. While from 1991 to 2001, the Indian Muslim population grew by 29.3%, in the period 2001-2011, it grew by 24.4% – a fall, therefore, of almost 5 percentage points.
The Sachar Committee Report, taking this falling growth rate into account, has estimated that the Muslim proportion will stabilise at between 17% and 21% of the Indian population by 2100. A far cry from some of the doomsday scenarios being painted.
Bogey #2: The Muslim growth rate is abnormal
The extremely poor economic conditions of Muslims in India are cited by many liberals and left wingers as the prime reason for their high population growth rate. However, the Hindutva explanation for this growth, expectedly, blames religious factors and dismisses the economic drivers. To quote Hindutva Indologist, Koenraad Elst: “Muslims will have a markedly higher birth rate than their Hindu counterparts, even to the extent of having a higher birth rate than Hindus in a lower educational or income bracket.”
The data tells a different story.
As this chart below shows, depending on how you segment the data, a number of other disadvantaged population groups have growth rates similar to the Muslim growth rate.
Data: Census of India, 2011.
Moreover, since Muslim infant mortality is lower than other population segments, this effect can even be seen in the Total Fertility Rate (or number of births per woman).
Data: National Family Health Survey.
The Muslim Total Fertility Rate is, as expected, higher than that for Hindus and Christian. But when we segment the population socio-economically, we see that Muslims manage to be better off than people without any education or the poorest fifth of India’s population by wealth.
Clearly then, economic and educational factors seem to the major driver at play here.
We could also disprove the Hindutva groups’ religious argument by looking at the global scene. Iran, for example, achieved replacement level fertility (with each new generation being less populous than the one before) in 2002, a goal India will only reach in 2020. With a population that is more than 90% Muslim, Bangladesh has a TFR not only lower than India’s overall but also lower than India’s Hindus.
Bogey #3: Bangladeshi Immigration
Accusations of large-scale Bangladeshi immigration are a hot-button issue for the right wing now, another supposed driver of the alleged Muslim population boom, along with polygamy (which in itself is untrue). So critical, in fact, that Modi thought that the Assam government was culling rhinos in order to make way for immigrants.
If, as alleged, such large-scale immigration was taking place from Bangladesh to Assam and West Bengal, the Muslim population in those two states would tend to show abnormal growth. But the data shows nothing of that sort.
Data: Census of India, 2001.
Assam’s Muslim population, for example, grew at the same rate as India’s Muslim population between 1991 and 2001 and West Bengal’s Muslim population, in fact, grew slower. The abnormal growth rate that Assam’s and West Bengal’s Muslim populations should show, given the alleged massive Bangladeshi immigration, simply has not happened.
In the rough and tumble of India’s politics, religious rhetoric often goes a long way electorally. It is therefore not surprising that, in spite of the mountains of contrary data, the Sangh Parivar's demographic scaremongering has managed to achieve a significant amount of traction.
We welcome your comments at letters@scroll.in.
'By 2050, India will have most Muslims in world', said the Pew Research Center
Shailaja Neelakantan | TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Updated: Mar 3, 2017, 11:59 IST
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/by-2050-india-will-have-most-muslims-in-world-said-the-pew-research-center-recently/articleshow/57428340.cms
HIGHLIGHTS
Currently, Muslims make up 23% of the global population
Muslims are the only major religious group projected to increase faster than the world's population, Pew Research Centre, a think tank said
(Representative image)(Representative image)
NEW DELHI: Because they have the youngest median age (30) of all religious groups, Muslims are the fastest-growing such group in the world, and by 2050+ , India will be the country with the world's largest Muslim population, said American think tank Pew Research Centre, this week.
While Islam is currently the world's second-largest religion after Christianity, it is now also the fastest-growing major religion. And if current demographic trends continue, the Muslim population is expected to exceed the number of Christians by the end of this century, Pew said.
There were 1.6 billion Muslims in the world as of 2010 - roughly 23% of the global population - according to a Pew estimate. Currently, Indonesia has the world's largest Muslim population.
In a 2015 report, Pew said that while the world's population is projected to grow 35 percent in the coming decades, the number of Muslims is expected to increase by 73 percent -to 2.8 billion in 2050. In fact, Muslims are the only major religious group projected to increase faster than the world's population as a whole, the think tank said.
"The growth and regional migration of Muslims, combined with the ongoing impact of the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) and other extremist groups that commit acts of violence in the name of Islam, have brought Muslims and the Islamic faith to the forefront of the political debate in many countries," the think tank's report said.
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"Yet many facts about Muslims are not well known in some of these places, and most Americans - who live in a country with a relatively small Muslim population - say they know little or nothing about Islam," the report added.
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By 2100 .. only in india muslim religion can be seen ... in other countries we can find muslims in ZOO or MUSEUM
ramakrishnareddy reddy
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At 62 percent, a majority of the Muslims globally live in the Asia-Pacific region. This included large populations in Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran and Turkey, Pew said. Indonesia is currently the country with the world's largest Muslim population, but Pew Research Center projects that India will have that distinction by the year 2050, with more than 300 million Muslims.
"The Muslim population in Europe also is growing; we project 10% of all Europeans will be Muslims by 2050," Pew said. Muslims are expected to grow as a percentage of every region except Latin America and the Caribbean, where relatively few Muslims live, Pew said in 2015 when it first indicated Muslims might be becoming the largest religious group in the world.
Rukmini S. Vijaita Singh NEW DELHI, AUGUST 25, 2015 18:55 IST
UPDATED: FEBRUARY 13, 2017 15:41 IST
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/Muslim-population-growth-slows/article10336665.ece
Muslims_India_TH1
Gap with Hindu growth rate narrows.
India’s Muslim population is growing slower than it had in the previous decades, and its growth rate has slowed more sharply than that of the Hindu population, new Census data show.
The decadal Muslim rate of growth is the lowest it has ever been in India’s history, as it is for all religions.
The Muslim population still grows at a faster rate than the Hindu population, but the gap between the two growth rates is narrowing fast.
India in numbers
India now has 966.3 million Hindus, who make up 79.8 per cent of its population, and 172.2 million Muslims, who make up 14.23 per cent. Among the other minorities, Christians make up 2.3 per cent of the population and Sikhs 1.72 per cent.
The Registrar-General and Census Commissioner released the data on Population by Religious Communities of Census 2011 on Tuesday evening.
The distribution of data is of the total population by six major religious communities — Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Sikh, Buddhist and Jain — besides “Other religions and persuasions” and “Religion not stated”.
The data are released by sex and residence up to the levels of sub-districts and towns.
As has been the case since Independence, the rate of increase of the Muslim population is higher than that of the Hindu population as a result of higher Muslim fertility, higher child mortality among Hindus and a greater life expectancy among Muslims, demographers say. However, Muslim fertility rates in India are falling faster than among Hindus, Pew Research’s Future of World Religions report showed recently, and the Muslim community is expected to reach replacement levels of fertility by 2050.
Muslim sex ratio improves further
The data on Population by Religious Communities of Census 2011 show that between 2001 and 2011, Hindu population grew by 16.76 per cent, while that of Muslims by 24.6 per cent. The population of both communities grew faster during the previous decade, at 19.92 per cent and 29.52 per cent, respectively. As a long-term trend, say demographers, the communities’ growth rates are converging.
“This is completely along expected lines, and has been an ongoing process,” P. Arokiasamy, demographer and Professor at the International Institute of Population Sciences, Mumbai, told The Hindu. “With rising education and changing family expectations, declining fertility is an expected demographic phenomenon. It begins among better educated groups with better access to health care — as in India’s southern States — and then other groups catch up and converge,” Dr. Arokiasamy explained. In Kerala, for instance, the Muslim fertility rate (while higher than among the Hindus) is extremely low, especially compared with all communities in the northern States, he said.
The numbers show that the sex ratio among Muslims, already better than among Hindus, has further improved.
The sex ratio among Muslims now stands at 951 females for every 1,000 males, substantially better than 936 in 2001, while among Hindus, it is 939 females for every 1,000 males, a slight improvement over the 2001 value of 931. J&K remains the State with the largest Muslim population as a proportion (68.31 per cent) and saw the largest increase in the Muslim proportion between 2001 and 2011, followed by Uttarakhand and Kerala.
Religion Numbers (Per cent of the population)
Hindu 96.63 crore (79.8 %)
Muslim 17.22 crore (14.2%)
Christian 2.78 crore (2.3%)
Sikh 2.08 crore (1.7%)
Buddhist 0.84 crore (0.7%)
Jain 0.45 crore (0.4%)
Other Religions & Persuasions (ORP) 0.79 crore (0.7%)
Religion Not Stated 0.29 crore (0.2%)
Growth rate
The growth rate of population in the decade 2001-2011 was 17.7%. The growth rate of population of the different religious communities in the same period was:
Religion Growth
Hindu 16.8%
Muslim 24.6%
Christian 15.5%
Sikh 8.4%
Buddhist 6.1%
Jain 5.4%
The Census data on religion comes after a significant delay; the 2001 Census data on religion was released in 2004 and the 2011 round results were expected in 2014. However, the numbers remained unreleased, even as a draft of the key data was selectively leaked earlier. The data comes in the backdrop of much fear-mongering over Muslims and their population, and RSS thinkers were quick to term the new data as proof of the end of Hindus, even while the numbers belie their claim.
The article and the graphic have been corrected for factual errors.
RSS Claims About Rapid Growth of the Muslim Population are Simply False
BY SALMAN ANEES SOZ ON 07/09/2016 • 2 COMMENTS
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RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat speaking at Agra College last month. Credit: PTI
RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat speaking at Agra College last month. Credit: PTI
Recently, Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) made controversial remarks in response to questions about population growth of Indian Muslims. He was addressing a gathering of young couples at Agra College. Hindutva groups such as the RSS have long stoked fears of Muslims becoming the largest religious group in India.
In fact, Prime Minister Modi too had infamously fanned such a narrative when he was Chief Minister in Gujarat. Of course, there is no evidence to support the outlandish claims of Hindutva groups. But, in the immortal words of Mark Twain, “a lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.” It is my intention to help truth chase lies down. I am particularly interested in the kinds of lies that are divisive and put ordinary lives in danger.
Let’s first see what the controversy was about. At this event, Mohan Bhagwat was taking questions; two questions/comments in particular have been quoted by various media outlets.
“In Bharat, the rate of growth of Hindus is 2.1 percent and that of Muslims is 5.2 percent. If the growth rate of Hindu population continues to lag behind the Muslim growth rate (two-and-half times), then after 50 years, how will we live here as a Hindu nation (Hindu Rashtra)? Won’t this nation become an Islamic country?”
In the second instance, audience members gave examples of France where the French fertility rate was 1.8, while that of Muslims was 8.1. “This would lead to a situation when only one in five residing in France would be original resident by the year 2027,” a volunteer said.
In response, he is quoted to have said: “Which law says that the population of Hindus should not rise? What is stopping them when population of others is rising? The issue is not related to the system. It is because the social environment is like this.”
After an uproar ensued, RSS clarified Bhagwat’s comments in the following way:
What Mohan Bhagwat didn’t say: Hindus should produce more children.
What he actually said: Which law stops you from producing more children?
What he intended to say: There should be a common law about population growth applicable to all.
I think we all know what Mohan Bhagwat meant. Muslims are producing too many kids, they will overwhelm India’s Hindu majority character. Hindus should have more babies. If that is too much to ask, let’s bring in restrictions on how many kids people (read Muslims) can have. Of course, he is too smart to believe Muslims will outnumber Hindus. There is zero evidence to support that. But, fear mongering has its political advantages. So, why not say whatever it takes to promote Hindutva? It is for this reason that we must rebut the majoritarian propaganda of the RSS.
So, what are the facts? According to official census 2011 data, Hindus now constitute 79.8% of India’s population. In 2001, Hindus were 80.45% of the population. On the other hand, Muslims are now 14.2% of the population. In 2001, Muslims population was 13.4% of the total. Between 2001 and 2011, Hindu population grew at an annual rate of 1.55% while Muslims grew at 2.2%. Clearly, Muslims have grown faster than Hindus have. But, that is not the entire story. In fact, Muslim growth rate is slowing down at a rate faster than it is for Hindus. Between 1991 and 2001, the annual growth rate for Hindus was 1.8% and for Muslims it was 2.6%. This relative slowdown in Muslim growth rate is part of a natural demographic transition due to different factors including female education.
Another indicator of population trends is the total fertility rate (TFR), which is the number of births per woman. According to the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-3 from 2005-06), TFR for Muslim women is 3.1 while it was 2.7 for Hindu women. While Muslim TFR is higher, the gap with Hindu women has narrowed significantly. In the NFHS-1 (1992-93), TFR for Muslim and Hindu women was 4.4 and 3.3 respectively. Furthermore, RSS is aware that the fertility rate of Muslims is similar to fertility rates of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. Socioeconomic factors play an important part in evolution of fertility rates. If RSS really wants speed up the decline in Muslim fertility rates, perhaps the right approach would be to help improve the socioeconomic status of Muslims. Now, that would be quite an innovation for RSS. In any event, based on census data on population growth rates and their expected path, as well as the TFR data from NFHS, I am confident Hindus will likely remain at about 80% of India’s population throughout the 21st century.
But, aren’t Muslims growing so rapidly in countries like France that they will soon overwhelm the “original” residents? By extension, if Muslims can do it in Europe, they can do it India, seems to be the argument. The simple answer is ‘No’. The Pew Research Center estimates that while Muslim fertility rates are higher than for non-Muslims in France, the differences are far smaller than the RSS would have us believe. The Muslim fertility rate in France is 2.8 (not 8.1) for Muslims versus 1.9 for others. By 2030, Muslim fertility is likely to drop to 2.4 while for non-Muslims, it will remain at 1.9. The gap between Muslims and non-Muslims is narrowing. In fact, this narrowing gap in fertility rates between Muslims and non-Muslims is happening across Europe in countries such Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. The Pew Center suggests that fertility rates among Muslims (and others) will approach replacement level (2.1) by 2050. This appears to be a natural equilibrium.
Many others have fact-checked RSS talking points on Muslim population growth. Others have pointed out, as I do here, that RSS is spreading falsehoods for political reasons. RSS is so cynical that it continues to push this narrative of the demise of the Hindu majority even as it knows well that nothing close to it is happening. Under such circumstances, we have no choice but to repeatedly call out the lies spread by RSS. But even the RSS must know, truth alone triumphs!
The writer, formerly with the World Bank, is a National Media Panelist of the Indian National Congress. Views expressed are personal.
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Muslim population growth
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
World Muslim population by percentage (Pew Research Center, 2014)
Muslim population growth refers to the topic of population growth of the global Muslim community. In 2006, countries with a Muslim majority had an average population growth rate of 1.8% per year (when weighted by percentage Muslim and population size).[1] This compares with a world population growth rate of 1.1% per year.[2] As of 2011, it is predicted that the world's Muslim population will grow twice as fast as non-Muslims over the next 20 years.[citation needed] By 2030, Muslims will make up more than a quarter of the global population.[citation needed]
Globally, Muslims have the highest fertility rate, an average of 3.1 children per woman—well above replacement level (2.1) due to young age of Muslims (median age of 23) compared to other religious groups.[3] Christians are second, at 2.7 children per woman.[4] Hindu fertility (2.4) is similar to the global average (2.5).[5] Worldwide, Jewish fertility (2.3 children per woman) also is above replacement level.[6] All the other groups have fertility levels too low to sustain their populations and would require converts to grow or maintain their size: indigenous and tribal religions (1.8 children per woman), other religions (1.7), the unaffiliated (1.7) and Buddhists (1.6).[7]
Islam is the fastest growing religion all over the world,[8] due primarily to the young age and high fertility rate of Muslims.[9][10] Religious switching has no impact on Muslim population relative to other religious group, since the number of people who embrace Islam and those who leave Islam are roughly equal.[11][12][12][13][14] It is often reported from most recent various sources in 2010, including the German domestic intelligence service, that Salafism is the fastest-growing Islamic movement in the world.[15][16][17][18] Though according to the World Christian Encyclopedia, published in 2001, the fastest-growing branch of Islam is Ahmadiyya.[19]
A 2007 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report argued that some Muslim population projections are overestimated, as they assume that all descendants of Muslims will become Muslims even in cases of mixed parenthood.[20]
Contents [hide]
1 Politics
2 By region
2.1 World
2.2 Asia
2.2.1 China
2.3 Europe
3 By denomination
4 Conversion
5 See also
6 References
Politics[edit]
Estimating Muslim population growth is related to contentious political issues. Some Islamic organizations have accused American demographers of releasing falsely low population numbers of Muslims in the United States to justify the marginalization of Muslims.[21]
By region[edit]
World[edit]
According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the World Christian Database as of 2007 estimated the six fastest-growing religions of the world to be Islam (1.8%), the Bahá'í Faith (1.7%), Sikhism (1.6%), Jainism (1.6%), Hinduism (1.5%), and Christianity (1.3%). High birth rates were cited as the reason for the growth.[22] However, according to others, including the Guinness World Records, Islam is the world's fastest-growing religion by number of conversions each year.[23]
Monsignor Vittorio Formenti, who compiles the Vatican's yearbook, said in an interview with the Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano that "For the first time in history, we are no longer at the top: Muslims have overtaken us". He said that Catholics accounted for 17.4% of the world population—a stable percentage—while Muslims were at 19.2%.[24] "It is true that while Muslim families, as is well known, continue to make a lot of children, Christian ones on the contrary tend to have fewer and fewer," the monsignor said.[25]
On April 2, 2015, the Pew Research Center published a Demographic Study about "The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050" with projections of the growth of Islam and reasons why "Islam will grow faster than any other major religion."[26] The study concludes that the global Muslim population is expected to grow at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population due primarily to the young age and high fertility rate of Muslims.[27][28]
Projected growth of Islam by 2050
Some of the projections are as follows:[29]
"If current trends continue, by 2050 the number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world."
"In Europe, Muslims will make up 10% of the overall population."
In India, a Hindu majority will be retained.
"In the United States, "Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion," so "Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion."
Reasons given for the projected growth
Some of the reasons the Study gives are as follows:[26]
The change in the world's religious is "driven primarily by differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world's major religions, as well as by people switching faiths."
Fertility rates. The world's total population "is expected to rise to 9.3 billion, a 35% increase" between 2010 and 2050, However, "over that same period, Muslims, who have a comparatively youthful population with high fertility rates, are projected to increase by 73%." Muslim growth benefits from the fertility factor because "globally, Muslims have the highest fertility rate, an average of 3.1 children per woman." This is above a replacement level of 2.1 which is "the minimum typically needed to maintain a stable population."
Size of youth population. "In 2010, more than a quarter of the world's total population (27%) was under the age of 15. But a "higher percentage of Muslims (34%) were younger than 15."
Size of old population. In 2010, "11% of the world's population was at least 60 years old," but only 7% of Muslims were over 60.
Switching. Between 2010 and 2050 a gain of 3,220,000 Muslim adherents is projected to come through switching, mostly found in the Sub Saharan Africa (2.9 million). Also, the Muslim population are projected to add 1.3 million and lose 880,000 via switching, for a net gain of 420,000 between 2015 and 2020.
Migration. Migration is the third reason for the Muslim population growth. For example, 1.8% of the projected growth in Europe is attributed to Muslims migrating in.
Asia[edit]
Islam is currently the largest religion in Asia. According to the Pew Research Center, nearly three-in-ten people living in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 (27.3%) will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in 2010 (24.8%) and roughly a fifth in 1990 (21.6%).[30]
, regarding attitudes "toward birth control," younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women are less likely to favor it than are older (ages 20–30). Regarding "knowledge of birth control," younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women know less than do older (ages 20–30). "Muslim marriages take place earlier" than other religions, and younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women are more likely to want to have "many children" than are older (ages 20–30).[31]
According to Paul Kurtz, Muslims in India are much more resistant to modern contraceptive measures compared to other Indians and, as a consequence, the fertility rate among non-Muslim women is much lower compared to that of Muslim women.[32][33] According to the projection of a 2006 committee appointed by the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, if the current trend continued, by the end of the 21st century India's Muslim population would reach about 340 million people (19% or 20% of India's total projected population), despite the fact that Hindus would still remain the predominant religious community of the country.[34] Islam is the second-largest religion in India, making up 14.9% of the country's population with about 180 million adherents (2011 census).[35][36] According to the Pew Research Center, in 2011, India had the second largest population of Muslims, after Indonesia.[37]
China[edit]
In China, Muslim population growth was 2.7% during 1964–1982, compared to 2.1% for the population as the next two decades from 2011.[citation needed] Pew Research Center projects a slowing down of Muslim population growth in China than in previous years, with Muslim women in China having a 1.7 fertility rate.[38] Many Hui Muslims voluntarily limit themselves to one child in China since their Imams preach to them about the benefits of population control. The number of children, in different areas, people are allowed to have varies between one and three children.[39] Chinese family planning policy allows minorities, including Muslims, to have up to two children in urban areas, and three to four children in rural areas.[citation needed]
Europe[edit]
See also: Islam in Europe
Islam is the fastest-growing religion in Europe.[40][41] According to the Pew Research Center, the Muslim population in Europe (excluding Turkey) was about 30 million in 1990, 44 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 58 million by 2030; the Muslim share of the population increased from 4.1% in 1990 to 6% in 2010 and will continue to increase over the next 40 years, reaching 10% in 2050.[7][30] There were approximately 19 million Muslims in the European Union in 2010 or about (3.8%).[42]
Data for the rates of growth of Islam in Europe reveal that the growing number of Muslims is due primarily to immigration and higher birth rates.[43] Eric Kaufmann of University of London argues that the main reason why Islam is expanding, is not because of conversion to Islam, but primarily to the nature of the religion as he call it “pro-natal”, where Muslims tend to have more children.[44] Muslim women today have an average of 2.2 children compared to an estimated average of 1.5 children for non-Muslim women in Europe.[7] While the birth rate for Muslims in Europe is expected to decline over the next two decades, it will remain slightly higher than in the non-Muslim population,[7] except for Dutch-Turks, who have a lower birthrate (1.7) than the native Dutch population (1.8).[45][46]
Based on the current growth rate of Islam in Europe, in 2030, Muslims are projected to make up more than 10% of the total population in 10 European countries: Kosovo (93.5%), Albania (83.2%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (42.7%), Republic of Macedonia (40.3%), Montenegro (21.5%), Bulgaria (15.7%), Russia (14.4%), Georgia (11.5%), France (10.3%) and Belgium (10.2%).[30] There are around 100,000 Muslim converts in the UK.[47][48] France has seen conversions to the Islamic faith double in the past quarter century. In France there are an estimated 100,000 Muslim converts, compared with about 50,000 in 1986.[49]
By denomination[edit]
The following table lists historical growth rates (rounded) by schools and branches in Islam as published by the previous two editions of the World Christian Encyclopedia.
Branches/Schools Growth rate (%) in 1982 Growth rate (%) in 2001
Sunni - -
Hanafi 2.8 2.1
Shafi 2.9 2.2
Maliki 2.4 2.0
Hanbali 2.7 2.2
Shia - -
Twelver 2.8 2.2
Isma'ili 3.4 2.7
Zaydi 2.8 2.3
Alawites 2.8 -
Ahmadi 4.2 3.3
Khariji 2.7 2.1
Wahhabi - 1.4
Conversion[edit]
In a 2015 article, the Pew Research Center said that the "bulging youth populations are among the reasons that Muslims are projected to grow faster than the world's overall population"[50] Only 0.3% (3,220,000 people) of the expected Muslim population growth (1,161,780,000) in the period of 2010–2050 would be due to conversions; 99.7% would be due to a high birth rate among Muslims.[7][51][52] According to 2016 study by Pew Research Center found that only 0.3% (500,000 people) of the Muslim population growth in the period of 2010–2015 was be due to conversions, While (152,000,000) of the Muslim population growth was due natural increas (births minus deaths).[53] According to The New York Times, an estimated 25% of American Muslims are converts.[54] In Britain, around 6,000 people convert to Islam per year and according to a June 2000 article in the British Muslims Monthly Survey the bulk of new Muslim converts in Britain were women.[55] According to The Huffington Post, "observers estimate that as many as 20,000 Americans convert to Islam annually."[56]
Darren E. Sherkat questioned in Foreign Affairs whether some of the Muslim growth projections are accurate as they do not take into account the increasing number of non-religious Muslims. Quantitative research is lacking, but he believes the European trend mirrors the American: data from the General Social Survey in the United States show that 32 percent of those raised Muslim no longer embrace Islam in adulthood, and 18 percent hold no religious identification.[57]
Studies estimate significantly more people have converted from Islam to Christianity in the 21st century than at any other point in Islamic history.[58] A 2015 study found that up to 10.2 million Muslim converted to Christianity.[59] The increasingly large ex-Muslim communities in the Western world that adhere to no religion have also been well documented.[60]
Minority report: Muslim families shrinking fastest among Indian communities
Indian families are getting smaller and the decline is sharpest amongst Muslims, religious census data released on Friday said, in what could be signs of rising education and literacy levels in the community.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/minority-report-muslim-families-shrinking-fastest-among-indian-communities/story-hkO5699sGJUFEcYGBEmmrM.html
INDIA Updated: May 21, 2016 00:16 IST
HT Correspondent
HT Correspondent
Hindustan Times
In the Muslim community the average family size fell from 5.61 to 5.15, the report released by the home ministry said.
In the Muslim community the average family size fell from 5.61 to 5.15, the report released by the home ministry said. (Abhishek Saha/HT Photo)
Indian families are getting smaller and the decline is sharpest among Muslims, religious census data released on Friday said, in what could be signs of rising literacy levels in the community.
The report of the census carried out in 2011 was released almost a year after the government revealed religion-wise population figures from the same year.
The latest data said the country’s average family size in 2011 was 4.45 members, down from 4.67 a decade earlier, a drop of 5.3%.
In the Muslim community the average family size fell from 5.61 to 5.15, the report released by the home ministry said. The reduction was sharper -- 11.1% -- for Muslim households headed by men while for families headed by women it was 4.47%.
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The Muslim community is often targeted by Hindu right-wing groups of having large families and a higher population growth rate. Last year, BJP parliamentarian Sakshi Maharaj and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) Sadhvi Prachi had separately asked Hindu women to bear at least four children to counter the growth in Muslim population.
Religious population data released last year showed that the community grew by 24.6 percent between 2001 and 2011. At 17.22 crore, the community formed 14.2% of India’s 121 crore population. With a population of 96.63 crore, Hindus constitute 79.8% of the population.
Data released on Friday also showed the average size of Hindu families declined by 5.02% over the decade, Christian households by 6.47%, Sikh by 7.44%, Buddhist by 5.96% and Jain by 5.5%.
The average household size was higher in male headed households as compared to those headed by females across all religious communities.
Overall, “Christians had the highest percentage of households headed by females (17.4%) followed next by Buddhist (15.9%). The lowest percentage of female headed households is in Jain community (11.5%),” the report said.
The data showed that the difference in household size between different religious communities wasn’t as big as was often made out. Besides, the continuing decline has also narrowed the gap in family size between different religious communities.
In 2011, the average size of a Hindu family was 4.35. In contrast, a Muslim household had 5.15 members, a Christian household 4.05, Sikh household 4.85, Buddhist household 4.1 and a Jain household 4.45 members.
In 2011, an average Muslim family just had 0.8 more persons than a Hindu household as compared to 1.03 persons in 2001.
Myth of Muslim growth
Once again, the debate on census population data on religion misses the point.
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/myth-of-muslim-growth/
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Written by Abusaleh Shariff | Updated: September 2, 2015 12:44 am
Census 2011, Census 2011 muslims population, Muslim population, population growth, Muslim population growth, Census 2011 data, Census 2011 religious population, religious population census, census population data, indian express column, in column, Abusaleh Shariff column Muslims have shown a 50 per cent higher decline in growth rate than Hindus. This positive higher decline of Muslims has been occurring since 1981 and is expected to continue in a manner such that, soon, the Muslim growth rate will be similar to that of the Hindus.
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With the release of the Census 2011 data on religion and misleading reports in the media, the growth of the Muslim population has become the focus of the debate once again. Almost 10 years ago, in 2004, a similar but sharper controversy had erupted when the government released the Census 2001 data on religion.
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There were strong but misguided media debates on the differentials in population growth by religion in reference to Census 2001. The debate was so intense, and often so malicious, that the Union government established a committee to find out the “social, economic and educational status of the Muslims”; it published a report, popularly known as the Sachar report, which has dispelled misunderstandings about Muslim population growth, as well as the status of social, economic and educational conditions according to major socio-religious categories. Now, over a decade later, it is appropriate to ask what has changed that pertains to the Muslims of India.
Many often wonder whether the release of census data coincides with some political activity, like elections. The answer seems to be in the affirmative. Further, the data is released in a context where, for over a year, the sadhvis and sadhus occupying a “place of pride” within Parliament have been yelling urgency in containing the growth of Muslims. It is time to find out if such rhetoric — “paanch beevian aur un sabke 25 bachche” — has finally yielded results.
India is projected to have 311 million Muslims in 2050 (11 per cent of the global total), making it the country with the largest Muslim population in the world.
In the nearly 70 years since Independence, religious violence has claimed thousands of lives, including those of modern India’s founder, Mahatma Gandhi, and former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. A recent Pew Research Centre report on religious restrictions found India to have one of the highest levels of social hostilities involving religion in the world.
With this background, let us get into the specific highlights of the Census 2011 population by religion data.
First, the total population growth rate declined from 21.5 per cent to 17.7 per cent, which is a continuation of the decline of the population of all religions since 1981. The decline has been somewhat faster than what many experts expected, which is reassuring since population stabilisation will occur earlier than projected estimates.
Second, the Muslim population has increased from 13.4 per cent of the population to 14.2 per cent, which is 0.8 percentage points higher. But the rate of growth is considerably lower than in previous decades. Muslims are expected to grow faster than Hindus for a couple of more decades because they have the youngest median age and relatively high fertility among the major religious groups in India. In 2010, the median age of Indian Muslims was 22, compared with 26 for Hindus and 28 for Christians. Muslim women bear an average 3.1 children per head, compared with 2.7 for Hindus and 2.3 for Christians.
Third, in 2011, Hindus constituted 79.8 per cent of the population, compared to 80.5 per cent in 2001. This is the result of a rate of decline over the decade of 3.5 percentage points. It is the difference between the decadal growth rate of Hindus in 2001, which was 20.3 per cent and their growth rate between 2001 and 2011, which is 16.8 per cent. Compare these with the ratios for Muslims, who had a decadal growth rate of 29.5 per cent in 2001. This growth rate, between 2001 and 2011, has declined steeply to 24.6 per cent. This decline works out to be a high 4.9 percentage points.
Fourth, when these percentage point declines are compared between Hindus and Muslims, Muslims have shown a 50 per cent higher decline in growth rate than Hindus. This positive higher decline of Muslims compared with Hindus has been occurring since 1981, and is expected to continue in a manner such that the Muslim growth rate will soon be similar to that of the Hindus. The fast pace of decline in Muslim women’s fertility rate is occurring while they have a much lower mean child-bearing age, which in itself is evidence that falling Muslim fertility is choice-based and irreversible in the near future.
Fifth, overall, there is considerable improvement in the sex ratio in 2011 — 943. This improvement has been phenomenal among Hindus. This is a very positive story of Census 2011. Yet, Muslims have better sex ratios compared to Hindus, which is also a contributing factor in the relatively higher number of births.
Sixth, it has been pointed out since the mid-1980s that the prevalence rate of contraceptives among Muslims has been increasing faster than among Hindus and is likely to catch up with the national average earlier than expected. The rate of increase in contraception among the Muslim community, even in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, has been high.
In conclusion, it would be most appropriate to ask why the census of India has not yet published data according to religion for essential social and economic indicators — such as literacy rates and levels of literacy, work participation rates according to occupation, and the distribution of public employment in national and state governments. Such data highlight the participation of various religious communities in public spaces and also provide a better yardstick to measure equal opportunities in India.
The sadhvis and sadhus in Parliament would be better-off shouting slogans that favour the establishment of national- and state-level equal opportunity commissions in India. Also, it is time the Union government established a committee to review the improvement in the social, economic and educational situation of the 175-million strong Indian Muslim community since the Sachar Committee turned in its report.
The writer, executive director of the US-India Policy Institute in Washington DC, was also member-secretary of the Sachar Committee
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India to have largest Muslim population by 2050, says Pew report
The Muslim population in India will rise faster than any other religious group, increasing from 14.4 per cent to 18.4 per cent.
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-to-have-largest-muslim-population-by-2050-report-4552015/
By: Express Web Desk | New Delhi | Updated: March 3, 2017 6:15 pm
muslim population, muslims in India, Muslim population India, India population, India population increase, Hindus in India, Hindu population India, India news The median age for Muslims is 22. (Representational image)
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India has been projected to have the largest Muslim population by 2050, according to a report by the Pew research centre. The report says there will be 311 million Muslims in India by 2050, a population which will constitute 11 per cent of the global trend. The research also says that India will continue to house the largest number of Hindus in the world, with their population rising to 1.3 billion. Currently, Indonesia has the largest Muslim population.
Pew Report Suggests India To Have Largest Muslim Population By 2050
The research cites young median age and high fertility rates as the reasons behind the increasing population. For Muslims, this age is 22 as compared to Hindus for whom the age is 26. The median age for Christians is 28. Muslim women in India have an average of 3.2 children per woman against Hindu women who have 2.5 children per woman, while Christian women have 2.3 children per woman.
The Muslim population will rise faster increasing from 14.4 per cent in 2010 to 18.4 per cent of the total population in 2050. However, three in four people in India will still be Hindus. The population of Hindus in India will be larger than the Muslim populations in largest Muslim states India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangladesh combined.
Christian population in India, which is at 2.5 per cent of the total population right now, will reduce to 2.3 per cent of the total population in 2050, the report adds.
In a larger report, Pew research centre has said Muslims are the fastest growing religious groups in the world. The research centre has projected the Muslim population will increase faster than the world population as whole.
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Five charts that puncture the bogey of Muslim population growth
From Muslims overtaking Hindus to Bangladeshi immigration, much of the right wing’s rhetoric on demographics is belied by data.
https://scroll.in/article/705283/five-charts-that-puncture-the-bogey-of-muslim-population-growth
Five charts that puncture the bogey of Muslim population growth
IANS
Apr 08, 2015 · 08:55 am
Shoaib Daniyal
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A report released last week by the Pew Research Center predicting that India will overtake Indonesia as the country with the largest Muslim population has set off the usual suspects. In response, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad on Saturday asked Hindus to have more children to rectify this "demographic imbalance" and predicted that soon Muslims will overtake the number of Hindus in India.
This is nothing new, of course. Malthusian fears of a Muslim takeover of India have been a core part of the Hindutva agenda for almost a century now. After the 2002 Gujarat pogrom, for example, Narendra Modi characterised the violence-affected Muslims in riot camps as “baby-producing factories”. After he formed the government at the Centre, these fears have come to the fore in the form of pronouncements by various Bharatiya Janata Party leaders who want Hindu women to have greater numbers of children in order to boost the community’s numbers. In January, just before the Delhi assembly elections, the 2011 Census’ figures on religion were conveniently leaked to newspapers.
Unfortunately, these feverish demographic projections generate far more heat than light. As the charts below show, actual data on this issue would hardly support the sort of fears that the Sangh Parivar plays up.
Bogey #1: Muslims will overtake Hindus
This is an extremely popular notion in the Sangh Parivar. Before the Vishwa Hindu Parishad's statement on Saturday, this was last bought up in February by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Sadhvi Prachi, who accused Muslims of giving birth to “40 dogs” each and “trying to convert Hindustan into Darul Islam”. Drumming up of fears of a minority swamping a majority is standard right wing political strategy and it is no different in India.
Indeed, Muslim population growth rates are higher than the corresponding figure for the Hindu community. If one were to accepted that the leaked figures from the 2011 Census are accurate, Hindus grew at an average annual rate of 1.4% between 2001 and 2011. For Muslims, the corresponding figure was 2.2%.
If we assume both communities continue to grow at this rate, Muslims will catch up with Hindus by 2220 ‒ in around 200 years.
Data: Census of India, 2001 and 2011.
Accepting these growth rates, at the time Muslims outnumber Hindus, India’s population will be 3,264 crore. Now you know that is a lot of people but let’s see just how much.
Data: Census of India, 2001 and 2011.
At these rates, for Muslims to overtake Hindus, India’s population would need to be almost five times the current global population. In other words, this is clearly an impossible scenario.
More logically, at some point in the future, Muslim growth rates will slow down and the population will stabilise. This, in fact, is already happening. While from 1991 to 2001, the Indian Muslim population grew by 29.3%, in the period 2001-2011, it grew by 24.4% – a fall, therefore, of almost 5 percentage points.
The Sachar Committee Report, taking this falling growth rate into account, has estimated that the Muslim proportion will stabilise at between 17% and 21% of the Indian population by 2100. A far cry from some of the doomsday scenarios being painted.
Bogey #2: The Muslim growth rate is abnormal
The extremely poor economic conditions of Muslims in India are cited by many liberals and left wingers as the prime reason for their high population growth rate. However, the Hindutva explanation for this growth, expectedly, blames religious factors and dismisses the economic drivers. To quote Hindutva Indologist, Koenraad Elst: “Muslims will have a markedly higher birth rate than their Hindu counterparts, even to the extent of having a higher birth rate than Hindus in a lower educational or income bracket.”
The data tells a different story.
As this chart below shows, depending on how you segment the data, a number of other disadvantaged population groups have growth rates similar to the Muslim growth rate.
Data: Census of India, 2011.
Moreover, since Muslim infant mortality is lower than other population segments, this effect can even be seen in the Total Fertility Rate (or number of births per woman).
Data: National Family Health Survey.
The Muslim Total Fertility Rate is, as expected, higher than that for Hindus and Christian. But when we segment the population socio-economically, we see that Muslims manage to be better off than people without any education or the poorest fifth of India’s population by wealth.
Clearly then, economic and educational factors seem to the major driver at play here.
We could also disprove the Hindutva groups’ religious argument by looking at the global scene. Iran, for example, achieved replacement level fertility (with each new generation being less populous than the one before) in 2002, a goal India will only reach in 2020. With a population that is more than 90% Muslim, Bangladesh has a TFR not only lower than India’s overall but also lower than India’s Hindus.
Bogey #3: Bangladeshi Immigration
Accusations of large-scale Bangladeshi immigration are a hot-button issue for the right wing now, another supposed driver of the alleged Muslim population boom, along with polygamy (which in itself is untrue). So critical, in fact, that Modi thought that the Assam government was culling rhinos in order to make way for immigrants.
If, as alleged, such large-scale immigration was taking place from Bangladesh to Assam and West Bengal, the Muslim population in those two states would tend to show abnormal growth. But the data shows nothing of that sort.
Data: Census of India, 2001.
Assam’s Muslim population, for example, grew at the same rate as India’s Muslim population between 1991 and 2001 and West Bengal’s Muslim population, in fact, grew slower. The abnormal growth rate that Assam’s and West Bengal’s Muslim populations should show, given the alleged massive Bangladeshi immigration, simply has not happened.
In the rough and tumble of India’s politics, religious rhetoric often goes a long way electorally. It is therefore not surprising that, in spite of the mountains of contrary data, the Sangh Parivar's demographic scaremongering has managed to achieve a significant amount of traction.
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'By 2050, India will have most Muslims in world', said the Pew Research Center
Shailaja Neelakantan | TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Updated: Mar 3, 2017, 11:59 IST
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/by-2050-india-will-have-most-muslims-in-world-said-the-pew-research-center-recently/articleshow/57428340.cms
HIGHLIGHTS
Currently, Muslims make up 23% of the global population
Muslims are the only major religious group projected to increase faster than the world's population, Pew Research Centre, a think tank said
(Representative image)(Representative image)
NEW DELHI: Because they have the youngest median age (30) of all religious groups, Muslims are the fastest-growing such group in the world, and by 2050+ , India will be the country with the world's largest Muslim population, said American think tank Pew Research Centre, this week.
While Islam is currently the world's second-largest religion after Christianity, it is now also the fastest-growing major religion. And if current demographic trends continue, the Muslim population is expected to exceed the number of Christians by the end of this century, Pew said.
There were 1.6 billion Muslims in the world as of 2010 - roughly 23% of the global population - according to a Pew estimate. Currently, Indonesia has the world's largest Muslim population.
In a 2015 report, Pew said that while the world's population is projected to grow 35 percent in the coming decades, the number of Muslims is expected to increase by 73 percent -to 2.8 billion in 2050. In fact, Muslims are the only major religious group projected to increase faster than the world's population as a whole, the think tank said.
"The growth and regional migration of Muslims, combined with the ongoing impact of the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) and other extremist groups that commit acts of violence in the name of Islam, have brought Muslims and the Islamic faith to the forefront of the political debate in many countries," the think tank's report said.
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"Yet many facts about Muslims are not well known in some of these places, and most Americans - who live in a country with a relatively small Muslim population - say they know little or nothing about Islam," the report added.
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By 2100 .. only in india muslim religion can be seen ... in other countries we can find muslims in ZOO or MUSEUM
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At 62 percent, a majority of the Muslims globally live in the Asia-Pacific region. This included large populations in Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran and Turkey, Pew said. Indonesia is currently the country with the world's largest Muslim population, but Pew Research Center projects that India will have that distinction by the year 2050, with more than 300 million Muslims.
"The Muslim population in Europe also is growing; we project 10% of all Europeans will be Muslims by 2050," Pew said. Muslims are expected to grow as a percentage of every region except Latin America and the Caribbean, where relatively few Muslims live, Pew said in 2015 when it first indicated Muslims might be becoming the largest religious group in the world.
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