Muslim population growth slows
Rukmini S. Vijaita Singh NEW DELHI, AUGUST 25, 2015
UPDATED: FEBRUARY 13, 2017 15:41 IST
Gap with Hindu growth rate narrows.
India’s Muslim population is growing slower than it had in the previous decades, and its growth rate has slowed more sharply than that of the Hindu population, new Census data show.
The decadal Muslim rate of growth is the lowest it has ever been in India’s history, as it is for all religions.
The Muslim population still grows at a faster rate than the Hindu population, but the gap between the two growth rates is narrowing fast.
India in numbers
India now has 966.3 million Hindus, who make up 79.8 per cent of its population, and 172.2 million Muslims, who make up 14.23 per cent. Among the other minorities, Christians make up 2.3 per cent of the population and Sikhs 1.72 per cent.
The Registrar-General and Census Commissioner released the data on Population by Religious Communities of Census 2011 on Tuesday evening.
The distribution of data is of the total population by six major religious communities — Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Sikh, Buddhist and Jain — besides “Other religions and persuasions” and “Religion not stated”.
The data are released by sex and residence up to the levels of sub-districts and towns.
As has been the case since Independence, the rate of increase of the Muslim population is higher than that of the Hindu population as a result of higher Muslim fertility, higher child mortality among Hindus and a greater life expectancy among Muslims, demographers say. However, Muslim fertility rates in India are falling faster than among Hindus, Pew Research’s Future of World Religions report showed recently, and the Muslim community is expected to reach replacement levels of fertility by 2050.
Muslim sex ratio improves further
The data on Population by Religious Communities of Census 2011 show that between 2001 and 2011, Hindu population grew by 16.76 per cent, while that of Muslims by 24.6 per cent. The population of both communities grew faster during the previous decade, at 19.92 per cent and 29.52 per cent, respectively. As a long-term trend, say demographers, the communities’ growth rates are converging.
“This is completely along expected lines, and has been an ongoing process,” P. Arokiasamy, demographer and Professor at the International Institute of Population Sciences, Mumbai, told The Hindu. “With rising education and changing family expectations, declining fertility is an expected demographic phenomenon. It begins among better educated groups with better access to health care — as in India’s southern States — and then other groups catch up and converge,” Dr. Arokiasamy explained. In Kerala, for instance, the Muslim fertility rate (while higher than among the Hindus) is extremely low, especially compared with all communities in the northern States, he said.
The numbers show that the sex ratio among Muslims, already better than among Hindus, has further improved.
The sex ratio among Muslims now stands at 951 females for every 1,000 males, substantially better than 936 in 2001, while among Hindus, it is 939 females for every 1,000 males, a slight improvement over the 2001 value of 931. J&K remains the State with the largest Muslim population as a proportion (68.31 per cent) and saw the largest increase in the Muslim proportion between 2001 and 2011, followed by Uttarakhand and Kerala.
Religion Numbers (Per cent of the population)
Hindu 96.63 crore (79.8 %)
Muslim 17.22 crore (14.2%)
Christian 2.78 crore (2.3%)
Sikh 2.08 crore (1.7%)
Buddhist 0.84 crore (0.7%)
Jain 0.45 crore (0.4%)
Other Religions & Persuasions (ORP) 0.79 crore (0.7%)
Religion Not Stated 0.29 crore (0.2%)
Growth rate
The growth rate of population in the decade 2001-2011 was 17.7%. The growth rate of population of the different religious communities in the same period was:
Religion Growth
Hindu 16.8%
Muslim 24.6%
Christian 15.5%
Sikh 8.4%
Buddhist 6.1%
Jain 5.4%
The Census data on religion comes after a significant delay; the 2001 Census data on religion was released in 2004 and the 2011 round results were expected in 2014. However, the numbers remained unreleased, even as a draft of the key data was selectively leaked earlier. The data comes in the backdrop of much fear-mongering over Muslims and their population, and RSS thinkers were quick to term the new data as proof of the end of Hindus, even while the numbers belie their claim.
The article and the graphic have been corrected for factual errors.
RSS Claims About Rapid Growth of the Muslim Population are Simply False
Growth rate among Muslims is slowing down faster than among Hindus and this fact is widely known
RSS Claims About Rapid Growth of the Muslim Population are Simply False
RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat speaking at Agra College last month. Credit: PTI
Salman Anees Soz
Salman Anees Soz
6
interactions
POLITICS
07/SEP/2016
Recently, Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) made controversial remarks in response to questions about population growth of Indian Muslims. He was addressing a gathering of young couples at Agra College. Hindutva groups such as the RSS have long stoked fears of Muslims becoming the largest religious group in India.
In fact, Prime Minister Modi too had infamously fanned such a narrative when he was Chief Minister in Gujarat. Of course, there is no evidence to support the outlandish claims of Hindutva groups. But, in the immortal words of Mark Twain, “a lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.” It is my intention to help truth chase lies down. I am particularly interested in the kinds of lies that are divisive and put ordinary lives in danger.
Let’s first see what the controversy was about. At this event, Mohan Bhagwat was taking questions; two questions/comments in particular have been quoted by various media outlets.
“In Bharat, the rate of growth of Hindus is 2.1 percent and that of Muslims is 5.2 percent. If the growth rate of Hindu population continues to lag behind the Muslim growth rate (two-and-half times), then after 50 years, how will we live here as a Hindu nation (Hindu Rashtra)? Won’t this nation become an Islamic country?”
In the second instance, audience members gave examples of France where the French fertility rate was 1.8, while that of Muslims was 8.1. “This would lead to a situation when only one in five residing in France would be original resident by the year 2027,” a volunteer said.
In response, he is quoted to have said: “Which law says that the population of Hindus should not rise? What is stopping them when population of others is rising? The issue is not related to the system. It is because the social environment is like this.”
After an uproar ensued, RSS clarified Bhagwat’s comments in the following way:
What Mohan Bhagwat didn’t say: Hindus should produce more children.
What he actually said: Which law stops you from producing more children?
What he intended to say: There should be a common law about population growth applicable to all.
I think we all know what Mohan Bhagwat meant. Muslims are producing too many kids, they will overwhelm India’s Hindu majority character. Hindus should have more babies. If that is too much to ask, let’s bring in restrictions on how many kids people (read Muslims) can have. Of course, he is too smart to believe Muslims will outnumber Hindus. There is zero evidence to support that. But, fear mongering has its political advantages. So, why not say whatever it takes to promote Hindutva? It is for this reason that we must rebut the majoritarian propaganda of the RSS.
So, what are the facts? According to official census 2011 data, Hindus now constitute 79.8% of India’s population. In 2001, Hindus were 80.45% of the population. On the other hand, Muslims are now 14.2% of the population. In 2001, Muslims population was 13.4% of the total. Between 2001 and 2011, Hindu population grew at an annual rate of 1.55% while Muslims grew at 2.2%. Clearly, Muslims have grown faster than Hindus have. But, that is not the entire story. In fact, Muslim growth rate is slowing down at a rate faster than it is for Hindus. Between 1991 and 2001, the annual growth rate for Hindus was 1.8% and for Muslims it was 2.6%. This relative slowdown in Muslim growth rate is part of a natural demographic transition due to different factors including female education.
Another indicator of population trends is the total fertility rate (TFR), which is the number of births per woman. According to the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-3 from 2005-06), TFR for Muslim women is 3.1 while it was 2.7 for Hindu women. While Muslim TFR is higher, the gap with Hindu women has narrowed significantly. In the NFHS-1 (1992-93), TFR for Muslim and Hindu women was 4.4 and 3.3 respectively. Furthermore, RSS is aware that the fertility rate of Muslims is similar to fertility rates of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. Socioeconomic factors play an important part in evolution of fertility rates. If RSS really wants speed up the decline in Muslim fertility rates, perhaps the right approach would be to help improve the socioeconomic status of Muslims. Now, that would be quite an innovation for RSS. In any event, based on census data on population growth rates and their expected path, as well as the TFR data from NFHS, I am confident Hindus will likely remain at about 80% of India’s population throughout the 21st century.
But, aren’t Muslims growing so rapidly in countries like France that they will soon overwhelm the “original” residents? By extension, if Muslims can do it in Europe, they can do it India, seems to be the argument. The simple answer is ‘No’. The Pew Research Center estimates that while Muslim fertility rates are higher than for non-Muslims in France, the differences are far smaller than the RSS would have us believe. The Muslim fertility rate in France is 2.8 (not 8.1) for Muslims versus 1.9 for others. By 2030, Muslim fertility is likely to drop to 2.4 while for non-Muslims, it will remain at 1.9. The gap between Muslims and non-Muslims is narrowing. In fact, this narrowing gap in fertility rates between Muslims and non-Muslims is happening across Europe in countries such Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. The Pew Center suggests that fertility rates among Muslims (and others) will approach replacement level (2.1) by 2050. This appears to be a natural equilibrium.
Many others have fact-checked RSS talking points on Muslim population growth. Others have pointed out, as I do here, that RSS is spreading falsehoods for political reasons. RSS is so cynical that it continues to push this narrative of the demise of the Hindu majority even as it knows well that nothing close to it is happening. Under such circumstances, we have no choice but to repeatedly call out the lies spread by RSS. But even the RSS must know, truth alone triumphs!
The writer, formerly with the World Bank, is a National Media Panelist of the Indian National Congress. Views expressed are personal.
Religion
Religion
Prologue | About census | Brief history of Census | Data items collected in Census | Administrative Divisions | Area and Population | Gender Composition | Scheduled caste and Scheduled tribes | Age structure and Marital Status | Literacy and Level of Education | Migration | Housing | Availability of Amenities and Assets | Economic activity | Religion | Disabled Population | In Conclusion
Religion returns in Indian census provide a wonderful kaleidoscope of the country s rich social composition, as many religions have originated in the country and few religions of foreign origin have also flourished here. India has the distinction of being the land from where important religions namely Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism and Jainism have originated at the same time the country is home to several indigenous faiths tribal religions which have survived the influence of major religions for centuries and are holding the ground firmly Regional con-existence of diverse religious groups in the country makes it really unique and the epithet unity in diversity is brought out clearly in the Indian Census.
Ever since its inception, the Census of India has been collecting and publishing information about the religious affiliations as expressed by the people of India. In fact, population census has the rate distinction of being the only instrument that collets the information son this diverse and important characteristic of the Indian population.
TABLE 21: DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY RELIGION
Religion
Number
%
All religious communities
1,028,610,328
100.0
Hindus
827,578,868
80.5
Muslims
138,188,240
13.4
Christians
24,080,016
2.3
Sikhs
19,215,730
1.9
Buddhists
7,955,207
0.8
Jains
4,225,053
0.4
Others
6,639,626
0.6
Religion not stated
727,588
0.1
Source : Religion, Census of India 2001
At the census 2001, out of 1028 million population, little over 827 million (80.5%) have returned themselves as followers of Hindu religion, 138 million (13.4%) as Muslims or the followers of Islam, 24 million (2.3%) as Christians, 19 million (1.9%) as Sikh, 8 million (0.80%) as Buddhists and 4 million (0.4%) are Jain. In addition, over 6 million have reported professing other religions and faiths including tribal religions, different from six main religions.
Hinduism is professed by the majority of population in India. The Hindus are most numerous in 27 states/Uts except in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Lakshadweep, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab.
The Muslims professing Islam are in majority in Lakshadweep and Jammu & Kashmir. The percentage of Muslims is sizeable in Assam (30.9%), West Bengal (25.2%), Kerala (24.7%), Uttar Pradesh (18.5%) and Bihar (16.5%).
Christianity has emerged as the major religion in three North-eastern states, namely, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Meghalaya. Among other states/Uts, Manipur (34.0%), Goa (26.7%), Andaman & Nicobar Islands (21.7%), Kerala (19.0%), and Arunachal Pradesh (18.7%) have considerable percentage of Christian population to the total population of the State/UT.
Punjab is the stronghold of Sikhism. The Sikh population of Punjab accounts for more than 75 % of the total Sikh population in the country. Chandigarh (16.1%), Haryana (5.5%), Delhi (4.0%), Uttaranchal (2.5%) and Jammu & Kashmir (2.0%) are other important States/Uts having Sikh population. These six states/Uts together account for nearly 90 percent Sikh population in the country.
The largest concentration of Buddhism is in Maharashtra (58.3%), where (73.4%) of the total Buddhists in India reside. Karnataka (3.9 lakh), Uttar Pradesh (3.0 lakh), west Bengal (2.4 lakh) and Madhya Pradesh (2.0 lakh) are other states having large Buddhist population. Sikkim (28.1%), Arunachal Pradesh (13.0%) and Mizoram (7.9 %) have emerged as top three states in terms of having maximum percentage of Buddhist population.
Maharashtra, Rajsthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujrat, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi have reported major Jain population. These states/Uts together account for nearly 90 percent of the total Jain population in the country. The percentage of Jain population to the total population is maximum in Maharastra (1.3%), Rajsthan (1.2%), Delhi (1.1%) and Gujrat (1.0%). Elsewhere in the country their proportion in negligible.
BJP leaders cite growing Muslim population as threat to India; facts don't back their claims
India IndiaSpend Jan 15, 2018 14:18:05 IST
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By Chaitanya Mallapur
As two elected representatives of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), including a union minister, cite rising Muslim population as a threat, the facts are: Muslim mothers have three children on average, while Hindus have two, but fertility rates are falling, and Muslim population growth is at a 20-year low.
No more than 18.4 percent of Indians will be Muslim by 2050, from 14.4 percent in 2011, and after 32 years, three in four Indians will be Hindu, according to a FactChecker analysis of available data. Christian, Sikh, Buddhist and Jain fertility rates are lower than that of Hindu and Muslim.
Muslim. Representational image. ReutersRepresentational image. Reuters
On 1 January, 2018–the year eight states go to the polls–union minister of state for micro, small and medium enterprises Giriraj Singh said a growing population, “especially Muslims, is a threat to the social fabric, social harmony, and development of the country”, and Banwari Lal Singhal, a BJP legislator from Rajasthan said while Hindus have one or two children and focus on educating them, “Muslims worried about (sic) how to take over the nation by increasing their population.”
The latest figures on children per mother by a religious group are more than a decade old, sourced from National Family Health Survey, 2005-06 (NFHS-3). Hindu and Muslim fertility rates are falling at an equal pace, data shows. Despite the decadal increase in the proportion of Muslims in India from 13.4 percent in 2001 to 14.4 percent, as per Census 2011, Muslim population growth recorded a 20-year low in 2011–falling to 24.6 percent from 32.8 percent in 1991, a decline, as we said, similar to that of Hindus (22.7 percent in 1991 to 16.7 percent in 2011).
Despite the four-percentage-point rise in the proportion of Muslims over the next 32 years, there is no likelihood they can–as the BJP leaders suggest–outnumber Hindus, according to projections made in 2015 by Pew Research Center, a think-tank based in the US.
Muslims want to take over nation by increasing population: Rajasthan legislator
“Hindus giving birth to only one or two children and are worried about educating them,” said Singhal. “But Muslims worried (sic) about how to take over the nation by increasing their population; education and development have no significance to them. It’s my personal opinion."
Singhal’s statement generated discussion and debates on television channels and social media.
In a similar statement to Singhal’s, union minister Singh said: “The growing population of the country, especially Muslims, is a threat to the social fabric, social harmony, and development of the country”.
In brief, these are the claims made:
Claim 1 - Hindus give birth only to one or two children; Muslims worried about how to take over the nation by increasing their population: Singhal
Claim 2 - Growing Muslim population is a threat to social fabric, social harmony and development of the country: Giriraj Singh
Let’s explore these claims in detail.
fact-checker-indiaspend
Fact 1 - 2.6 births per Hindu woman, 3.4 births per Muslim woman: NFHS 3
The rise in population is linked to the total fertility rate (TFR), the number of children a woman has over her childbearing years.
India’s TFR has declined from 3.4 in 1992-93 (NFHS 1) to 2.2 in 2015-16 (NFHS 4). The latest data have not made TFR by religion available.
The TFR for Hindus in 2005-06 was 2.6 births per woman and 3.4 for Muslims, according to NFHS 3, the latest available fertility rate by religion.
The fertility rate among Hindus and Muslims saw a similar declining trend of 0.2 percentage points each, according to our comparison of NFHS 3 and NFHS 2 (1998-99) data.
1
The fertility rate for Indian Muslim women fell from 4.1 in 2001 to 3.2 in 2010 and is expected to be 2.1 by 2050, FactChecker reported, quoting from a Pew report. Hindu fertility rates are 2.5, expected to fall to 1.9 by 2050, below the replacement level–a point at which population stabilises–of 2.1.
“India’s Muslim community will expand faster than its Hindu population, rising from 14.4 percent in 2010 to 18.4 percent in 2050,” the Pew report said. “But, even with this increase, Hindus will make up more than three-in-four Indians (76.7 percent) in 2050. Indeed, the number of Hindus in India will still be larger than the five largest Muslim populations in the world’s biggest Muslim countries (India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangladesh) combined.”
Fertility rates in India are more closely related to education levels and the socio-economic development within a state, than to religious beliefs, IndiaSpend reported. Richer families, states with better health facilities and higher female literacy have lower fertility rates, the analysis revealed.
Fact 2 - Muslim population growth at 20-year low; Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists have least children
India is home to more than 1.21 billion people: 79.8 percent Hindu (966 million), 14.2 percent Muslim (172 million), 2.3 percent Christian (28 million) and 1.7 percent Sikh (20 million), among major religious groups, according to Census 2011 data.
2
Over the decade to 2011, India’s population grew 17.7 percent. Muslim population grew fastest at 24.6 percent, followed by Hindu (16.8 percent), Christian (15.5 percent), Sikh (8.4 percent) and Buddhist (6.1 percent), according to census 2011 data released by the Registrar General and Census Commissioner in August 2015.
The proportion of Muslims in Indian population increased from 13.4 percent in 2001 to 14.2 percent in 2011; the proportion of Hindus declined from 80.5 percent in 2001 to 79.8 percent in 2011; Sikhs decreased from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent over the same period. There was no change in Christian and Jain proportions.
Based on the data released by the government in August 2015, media reports also pointed out that Islam was the fastest growing religion in India.
However, as we said, Muslim population growth fell to a 20-year low to 24.6 percent in 2011, the proportion of Muslims increasing across all states.
3
The decadal population growth rates of both Hindus–22.7 percent (1991), 19.9 percent (2001), 16.7 percent (2011)–and Muslims–32.8 percent (1991), 29.5 percent (2001), 24.6 percent (2011)–are declining.
The growth rate of Muslim population will continue to decline and will “stabilise” to the rate of Hindu population growth, Ram Puniyani, a social activist and former professor at Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, wrote in Countercurrents.org, an online opinions portal.
“Interestingly, the population increase of Hindus during the period of 2001 to 2011 has been 133 millions (sic), which is close to the total population of Muslims in 2001,” wrote Puniyani. “The scare being spread through (a) word-of-mouth campaign and through social media about Muslim population taking over the Hindu population holds no water, as there are clear trends of decline in the decadal rate of growth of (the) Muslim population as well.”
FactChecker is fact-checking initiative, scrutinising for veracity and context statements made by individuals and organisations in public life.
Updated Date: Jan 15, 2018 14:18 PM
Rukmini S. Vijaita Singh NEW DELHI, AUGUST 25, 2015
UPDATED: FEBRUARY 13, 2017 15:41 IST
Gap with Hindu growth rate narrows.
India’s Muslim population is growing slower than it had in the previous decades, and its growth rate has slowed more sharply than that of the Hindu population, new Census data show.
The decadal Muslim rate of growth is the lowest it has ever been in India’s history, as it is for all religions.
The Muslim population still grows at a faster rate than the Hindu population, but the gap between the two growth rates is narrowing fast.
India in numbers
India now has 966.3 million Hindus, who make up 79.8 per cent of its population, and 172.2 million Muslims, who make up 14.23 per cent. Among the other minorities, Christians make up 2.3 per cent of the population and Sikhs 1.72 per cent.
The Registrar-General and Census Commissioner released the data on Population by Religious Communities of Census 2011 on Tuesday evening.
The distribution of data is of the total population by six major religious communities — Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Sikh, Buddhist and Jain — besides “Other religions and persuasions” and “Religion not stated”.
The data are released by sex and residence up to the levels of sub-districts and towns.
As has been the case since Independence, the rate of increase of the Muslim population is higher than that of the Hindu population as a result of higher Muslim fertility, higher child mortality among Hindus and a greater life expectancy among Muslims, demographers say. However, Muslim fertility rates in India are falling faster than among Hindus, Pew Research’s Future of World Religions report showed recently, and the Muslim community is expected to reach replacement levels of fertility by 2050.
Muslim sex ratio improves further
The data on Population by Religious Communities of Census 2011 show that between 2001 and 2011, Hindu population grew by 16.76 per cent, while that of Muslims by 24.6 per cent. The population of both communities grew faster during the previous decade, at 19.92 per cent and 29.52 per cent, respectively. As a long-term trend, say demographers, the communities’ growth rates are converging.
“This is completely along expected lines, and has been an ongoing process,” P. Arokiasamy, demographer and Professor at the International Institute of Population Sciences, Mumbai, told The Hindu. “With rising education and changing family expectations, declining fertility is an expected demographic phenomenon. It begins among better educated groups with better access to health care — as in India’s southern States — and then other groups catch up and converge,” Dr. Arokiasamy explained. In Kerala, for instance, the Muslim fertility rate (while higher than among the Hindus) is extremely low, especially compared with all communities in the northern States, he said.
The numbers show that the sex ratio among Muslims, already better than among Hindus, has further improved.
The sex ratio among Muslims now stands at 951 females for every 1,000 males, substantially better than 936 in 2001, while among Hindus, it is 939 females for every 1,000 males, a slight improvement over the 2001 value of 931. J&K remains the State with the largest Muslim population as a proportion (68.31 per cent) and saw the largest increase in the Muslim proportion between 2001 and 2011, followed by Uttarakhand and Kerala.
Religion Numbers (Per cent of the population)
Hindu 96.63 crore (79.8 %)
Muslim 17.22 crore (14.2%)
Christian 2.78 crore (2.3%)
Sikh 2.08 crore (1.7%)
Buddhist 0.84 crore (0.7%)
Jain 0.45 crore (0.4%)
Other Religions & Persuasions (ORP) 0.79 crore (0.7%)
Religion Not Stated 0.29 crore (0.2%)
Growth rate
The growth rate of population in the decade 2001-2011 was 17.7%. The growth rate of population of the different religious communities in the same period was:
Religion Growth
Hindu 16.8%
Muslim 24.6%
Christian 15.5%
Sikh 8.4%
Buddhist 6.1%
Jain 5.4%
The Census data on religion comes after a significant delay; the 2001 Census data on religion was released in 2004 and the 2011 round results were expected in 2014. However, the numbers remained unreleased, even as a draft of the key data was selectively leaked earlier. The data comes in the backdrop of much fear-mongering over Muslims and their population, and RSS thinkers were quick to term the new data as proof of the end of Hindus, even while the numbers belie their claim.
The article and the graphic have been corrected for factual errors.
RSS Claims About Rapid Growth of the Muslim Population are Simply False
Growth rate among Muslims is slowing down faster than among Hindus and this fact is widely known
RSS Claims About Rapid Growth of the Muslim Population are Simply False
RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat speaking at Agra College last month. Credit: PTI
Salman Anees Soz
Salman Anees Soz
6
interactions
POLITICS
07/SEP/2016
Recently, Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) made controversial remarks in response to questions about population growth of Indian Muslims. He was addressing a gathering of young couples at Agra College. Hindutva groups such as the RSS have long stoked fears of Muslims becoming the largest religious group in India.
In fact, Prime Minister Modi too had infamously fanned such a narrative when he was Chief Minister in Gujarat. Of course, there is no evidence to support the outlandish claims of Hindutva groups. But, in the immortal words of Mark Twain, “a lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.” It is my intention to help truth chase lies down. I am particularly interested in the kinds of lies that are divisive and put ordinary lives in danger.
Let’s first see what the controversy was about. At this event, Mohan Bhagwat was taking questions; two questions/comments in particular have been quoted by various media outlets.
“In Bharat, the rate of growth of Hindus is 2.1 percent and that of Muslims is 5.2 percent. If the growth rate of Hindu population continues to lag behind the Muslim growth rate (two-and-half times), then after 50 years, how will we live here as a Hindu nation (Hindu Rashtra)? Won’t this nation become an Islamic country?”
In the second instance, audience members gave examples of France where the French fertility rate was 1.8, while that of Muslims was 8.1. “This would lead to a situation when only one in five residing in France would be original resident by the year 2027,” a volunteer said.
In response, he is quoted to have said: “Which law says that the population of Hindus should not rise? What is stopping them when population of others is rising? The issue is not related to the system. It is because the social environment is like this.”
After an uproar ensued, RSS clarified Bhagwat’s comments in the following way:
What Mohan Bhagwat didn’t say: Hindus should produce more children.
What he actually said: Which law stops you from producing more children?
What he intended to say: There should be a common law about population growth applicable to all.
I think we all know what Mohan Bhagwat meant. Muslims are producing too many kids, they will overwhelm India’s Hindu majority character. Hindus should have more babies. If that is too much to ask, let’s bring in restrictions on how many kids people (read Muslims) can have. Of course, he is too smart to believe Muslims will outnumber Hindus. There is zero evidence to support that. But, fear mongering has its political advantages. So, why not say whatever it takes to promote Hindutva? It is for this reason that we must rebut the majoritarian propaganda of the RSS.
So, what are the facts? According to official census 2011 data, Hindus now constitute 79.8% of India’s population. In 2001, Hindus were 80.45% of the population. On the other hand, Muslims are now 14.2% of the population. In 2001, Muslims population was 13.4% of the total. Between 2001 and 2011, Hindu population grew at an annual rate of 1.55% while Muslims grew at 2.2%. Clearly, Muslims have grown faster than Hindus have. But, that is not the entire story. In fact, Muslim growth rate is slowing down at a rate faster than it is for Hindus. Between 1991 and 2001, the annual growth rate for Hindus was 1.8% and for Muslims it was 2.6%. This relative slowdown in Muslim growth rate is part of a natural demographic transition due to different factors including female education.
Another indicator of population trends is the total fertility rate (TFR), which is the number of births per woman. According to the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-3 from 2005-06), TFR for Muslim women is 3.1 while it was 2.7 for Hindu women. While Muslim TFR is higher, the gap with Hindu women has narrowed significantly. In the NFHS-1 (1992-93), TFR for Muslim and Hindu women was 4.4 and 3.3 respectively. Furthermore, RSS is aware that the fertility rate of Muslims is similar to fertility rates of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. Socioeconomic factors play an important part in evolution of fertility rates. If RSS really wants speed up the decline in Muslim fertility rates, perhaps the right approach would be to help improve the socioeconomic status of Muslims. Now, that would be quite an innovation for RSS. In any event, based on census data on population growth rates and their expected path, as well as the TFR data from NFHS, I am confident Hindus will likely remain at about 80% of India’s population throughout the 21st century.
But, aren’t Muslims growing so rapidly in countries like France that they will soon overwhelm the “original” residents? By extension, if Muslims can do it in Europe, they can do it India, seems to be the argument. The simple answer is ‘No’. The Pew Research Center estimates that while Muslim fertility rates are higher than for non-Muslims in France, the differences are far smaller than the RSS would have us believe. The Muslim fertility rate in France is 2.8 (not 8.1) for Muslims versus 1.9 for others. By 2030, Muslim fertility is likely to drop to 2.4 while for non-Muslims, it will remain at 1.9. The gap between Muslims and non-Muslims is narrowing. In fact, this narrowing gap in fertility rates between Muslims and non-Muslims is happening across Europe in countries such Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. The Pew Center suggests that fertility rates among Muslims (and others) will approach replacement level (2.1) by 2050. This appears to be a natural equilibrium.
Many others have fact-checked RSS talking points on Muslim population growth. Others have pointed out, as I do here, that RSS is spreading falsehoods for political reasons. RSS is so cynical that it continues to push this narrative of the demise of the Hindu majority even as it knows well that nothing close to it is happening. Under such circumstances, we have no choice but to repeatedly call out the lies spread by RSS. But even the RSS must know, truth alone triumphs!
The writer, formerly with the World Bank, is a National Media Panelist of the Indian National Congress. Views expressed are personal.
Religion
Religion
Prologue | About census | Brief history of Census | Data items collected in Census | Administrative Divisions | Area and Population | Gender Composition | Scheduled caste and Scheduled tribes | Age structure and Marital Status | Literacy and Level of Education | Migration | Housing | Availability of Amenities and Assets | Economic activity | Religion | Disabled Population | In Conclusion
Religion returns in Indian census provide a wonderful kaleidoscope of the country s rich social composition, as many religions have originated in the country and few religions of foreign origin have also flourished here. India has the distinction of being the land from where important religions namely Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism and Jainism have originated at the same time the country is home to several indigenous faiths tribal religions which have survived the influence of major religions for centuries and are holding the ground firmly Regional con-existence of diverse religious groups in the country makes it really unique and the epithet unity in diversity is brought out clearly in the Indian Census.
Ever since its inception, the Census of India has been collecting and publishing information about the religious affiliations as expressed by the people of India. In fact, population census has the rate distinction of being the only instrument that collets the information son this diverse and important characteristic of the Indian population.
TABLE 21: DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY RELIGION
Religion
Number
%
All religious communities
1,028,610,328
100.0
Hindus
827,578,868
80.5
Muslims
138,188,240
13.4
Christians
24,080,016
2.3
Sikhs
19,215,730
1.9
Buddhists
7,955,207
0.8
Jains
4,225,053
0.4
Others
6,639,626
0.6
Religion not stated
727,588
0.1
Source : Religion, Census of India 2001
At the census 2001, out of 1028 million population, little over 827 million (80.5%) have returned themselves as followers of Hindu religion, 138 million (13.4%) as Muslims or the followers of Islam, 24 million (2.3%) as Christians, 19 million (1.9%) as Sikh, 8 million (0.80%) as Buddhists and 4 million (0.4%) are Jain. In addition, over 6 million have reported professing other religions and faiths including tribal religions, different from six main religions.
Hinduism is professed by the majority of population in India. The Hindus are most numerous in 27 states/Uts except in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Lakshadweep, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab.
The Muslims professing Islam are in majority in Lakshadweep and Jammu & Kashmir. The percentage of Muslims is sizeable in Assam (30.9%), West Bengal (25.2%), Kerala (24.7%), Uttar Pradesh (18.5%) and Bihar (16.5%).
Christianity has emerged as the major religion in three North-eastern states, namely, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Meghalaya. Among other states/Uts, Manipur (34.0%), Goa (26.7%), Andaman & Nicobar Islands (21.7%), Kerala (19.0%), and Arunachal Pradesh (18.7%) have considerable percentage of Christian population to the total population of the State/UT.
Punjab is the stronghold of Sikhism. The Sikh population of Punjab accounts for more than 75 % of the total Sikh population in the country. Chandigarh (16.1%), Haryana (5.5%), Delhi (4.0%), Uttaranchal (2.5%) and Jammu & Kashmir (2.0%) are other important States/Uts having Sikh population. These six states/Uts together account for nearly 90 percent Sikh population in the country.
The largest concentration of Buddhism is in Maharashtra (58.3%), where (73.4%) of the total Buddhists in India reside. Karnataka (3.9 lakh), Uttar Pradesh (3.0 lakh), west Bengal (2.4 lakh) and Madhya Pradesh (2.0 lakh) are other states having large Buddhist population. Sikkim (28.1%), Arunachal Pradesh (13.0%) and Mizoram (7.9 %) have emerged as top three states in terms of having maximum percentage of Buddhist population.
Maharashtra, Rajsthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujrat, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi have reported major Jain population. These states/Uts together account for nearly 90 percent of the total Jain population in the country. The percentage of Jain population to the total population is maximum in Maharastra (1.3%), Rajsthan (1.2%), Delhi (1.1%) and Gujrat (1.0%). Elsewhere in the country their proportion in negligible.
BJP leaders cite growing Muslim population as threat to India; facts don't back their claims
India IndiaSpend Jan 15, 2018 14:18:05 IST
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By Chaitanya Mallapur
As two elected representatives of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), including a union minister, cite rising Muslim population as a threat, the facts are: Muslim mothers have three children on average, while Hindus have two, but fertility rates are falling, and Muslim population growth is at a 20-year low.
No more than 18.4 percent of Indians will be Muslim by 2050, from 14.4 percent in 2011, and after 32 years, three in four Indians will be Hindu, according to a FactChecker analysis of available data. Christian, Sikh, Buddhist and Jain fertility rates are lower than that of Hindu and Muslim.
Muslim. Representational image. ReutersRepresentational image. Reuters
On 1 January, 2018–the year eight states go to the polls–union minister of state for micro, small and medium enterprises Giriraj Singh said a growing population, “especially Muslims, is a threat to the social fabric, social harmony, and development of the country”, and Banwari Lal Singhal, a BJP legislator from Rajasthan said while Hindus have one or two children and focus on educating them, “Muslims worried about (sic) how to take over the nation by increasing their population.”
The latest figures on children per mother by a religious group are more than a decade old, sourced from National Family Health Survey, 2005-06 (NFHS-3). Hindu and Muslim fertility rates are falling at an equal pace, data shows. Despite the decadal increase in the proportion of Muslims in India from 13.4 percent in 2001 to 14.4 percent, as per Census 2011, Muslim population growth recorded a 20-year low in 2011–falling to 24.6 percent from 32.8 percent in 1991, a decline, as we said, similar to that of Hindus (22.7 percent in 1991 to 16.7 percent in 2011).
Despite the four-percentage-point rise in the proportion of Muslims over the next 32 years, there is no likelihood they can–as the BJP leaders suggest–outnumber Hindus, according to projections made in 2015 by Pew Research Center, a think-tank based in the US.
Muslims want to take over nation by increasing population: Rajasthan legislator
“Hindus giving birth to only one or two children and are worried about educating them,” said Singhal. “But Muslims worried (sic) about how to take over the nation by increasing their population; education and development have no significance to them. It’s my personal opinion."
Singhal’s statement generated discussion and debates on television channels and social media.
In a similar statement to Singhal’s, union minister Singh said: “The growing population of the country, especially Muslims, is a threat to the social fabric, social harmony, and development of the country”.
In brief, these are the claims made:
Claim 1 - Hindus give birth only to one or two children; Muslims worried about how to take over the nation by increasing their population: Singhal
Claim 2 - Growing Muslim population is a threat to social fabric, social harmony and development of the country: Giriraj Singh
Let’s explore these claims in detail.
fact-checker-indiaspend
Fact 1 - 2.6 births per Hindu woman, 3.4 births per Muslim woman: NFHS 3
The rise in population is linked to the total fertility rate (TFR), the number of children a woman has over her childbearing years.
India’s TFR has declined from 3.4 in 1992-93 (NFHS 1) to 2.2 in 2015-16 (NFHS 4). The latest data have not made TFR by religion available.
The TFR for Hindus in 2005-06 was 2.6 births per woman and 3.4 for Muslims, according to NFHS 3, the latest available fertility rate by religion.
The fertility rate among Hindus and Muslims saw a similar declining trend of 0.2 percentage points each, according to our comparison of NFHS 3 and NFHS 2 (1998-99) data.
1
The fertility rate for Indian Muslim women fell from 4.1 in 2001 to 3.2 in 2010 and is expected to be 2.1 by 2050, FactChecker reported, quoting from a Pew report. Hindu fertility rates are 2.5, expected to fall to 1.9 by 2050, below the replacement level–a point at which population stabilises–of 2.1.
“India’s Muslim community will expand faster than its Hindu population, rising from 14.4 percent in 2010 to 18.4 percent in 2050,” the Pew report said. “But, even with this increase, Hindus will make up more than three-in-four Indians (76.7 percent) in 2050. Indeed, the number of Hindus in India will still be larger than the five largest Muslim populations in the world’s biggest Muslim countries (India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangladesh) combined.”
Fertility rates in India are more closely related to education levels and the socio-economic development within a state, than to religious beliefs, IndiaSpend reported. Richer families, states with better health facilities and higher female literacy have lower fertility rates, the analysis revealed.
Fact 2 - Muslim population growth at 20-year low; Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists have least children
India is home to more than 1.21 billion people: 79.8 percent Hindu (966 million), 14.2 percent Muslim (172 million), 2.3 percent Christian (28 million) and 1.7 percent Sikh (20 million), among major religious groups, according to Census 2011 data.
2
Over the decade to 2011, India’s population grew 17.7 percent. Muslim population grew fastest at 24.6 percent, followed by Hindu (16.8 percent), Christian (15.5 percent), Sikh (8.4 percent) and Buddhist (6.1 percent), according to census 2011 data released by the Registrar General and Census Commissioner in August 2015.
The proportion of Muslims in Indian population increased from 13.4 percent in 2001 to 14.2 percent in 2011; the proportion of Hindus declined from 80.5 percent in 2001 to 79.8 percent in 2011; Sikhs decreased from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent over the same period. There was no change in Christian and Jain proportions.
Based on the data released by the government in August 2015, media reports also pointed out that Islam was the fastest growing religion in India.
However, as we said, Muslim population growth fell to a 20-year low to 24.6 percent in 2011, the proportion of Muslims increasing across all states.
3
The decadal population growth rates of both Hindus–22.7 percent (1991), 19.9 percent (2001), 16.7 percent (2011)–and Muslims–32.8 percent (1991), 29.5 percent (2001), 24.6 percent (2011)–are declining.
The growth rate of Muslim population will continue to decline and will “stabilise” to the rate of Hindu population growth, Ram Puniyani, a social activist and former professor at Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, wrote in Countercurrents.org, an online opinions portal.
“Interestingly, the population increase of Hindus during the period of 2001 to 2011 has been 133 millions (sic), which is close to the total population of Muslims in 2001,” wrote Puniyani. “The scare being spread through (a) word-of-mouth campaign and through social media about Muslim population taking over the Hindu population holds no water, as there are clear trends of decline in the decadal rate of growth of (the) Muslim population as well.”
FactChecker is fact-checking initiative, scrutinising for veracity and context statements made by individuals and organisations in public life.
Updated Date: Jan 15, 2018 14:18 PM
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